Southwest Gas Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SWX Stock | USD 83.90 0.68 0.80% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Southwest Gas Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 83.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.50. Southwest Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Southwest Gas' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 930.776 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.442 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.6383 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.1647 | Wall Street Target Price 92 |
Using Southwest Gas hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Southwest Gas Holdings from the perspective of Southwest Gas response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Southwest Gas using Southwest Gas' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Southwest using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Southwest Gas' stock price.
Southwest Gas Short Interest
An investor who is long Southwest Gas may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Southwest Gas and may potentially protect profits, hedge Southwest Gas with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 77.2608 | Short Percent 0.0296 | Short Ratio 3.3 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.4 M | 50 Day MA 81.2152 |
Southwest Gas Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Southwest Gas' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Southwest. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Southwest can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Southwest Gas Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Southwest Gas Implied Volatility | 0.44 |
Southwest Gas' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Southwest Gas Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Southwest Gas' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Southwest Gas stock will not fluctuate a lot when Southwest Gas' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Southwest Gas Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 83.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.50. Southwest Gas after-hype prediction price | USD 83.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Southwest | Build AI portfolio with Southwest Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Southwest contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Southwest Gas Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0275% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Southwest Gas trading at USD 83.9, that is roughly USD 0.0231 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Southwest Gas' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Southwest Gas Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.44%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Southwest Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Southwest Gas' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Southwest Gas' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Southwest Gas stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Southwest Gas' open interest, investors have to compare it to Southwest Gas' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Southwest Gas is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Southwest. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Southwest Gas Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Southwest price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Southwest using various technical indicators. When you analyze Southwest charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Southwest Gas Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Southwest Gas Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 83.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 0.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 40.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Southwest Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Southwest Gas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Southwest Gas Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Southwest Gas | Southwest Gas Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Southwest Gas Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Southwest Gas' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Southwest Gas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 82.75 and 85.05, respectively. We have considered Southwest Gas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Southwest Gas stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Southwest Gas stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1457 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0583 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.675 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0083 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 40.5 |
Predictive Modules for Southwest Gas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Southwest Gas Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Southwest Gas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Southwest Gas After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Southwest Gas at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Southwest Gas or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Southwest Gas, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Southwest Gas Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Southwest Gas' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Southwest Gas' historical news coverage. Southwest Gas' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 82.75 and 85.05, respectively. We have considered Southwest Gas' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Southwest Gas is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Southwest Gas Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Southwest Gas Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Southwest Gas is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Southwest Gas backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Southwest Gas, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.15 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 3 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
83.90 | 83.90 | 0.00 |
|
Southwest Gas Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Southwest Gas Holdings is traded for 83.90. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. Southwest is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Southwest Gas is about 462.05%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 83.88. About 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.53. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Southwest Gas Holdings has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.07. The entity last dividend was issued on the 17th of February 2026. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southwest Gas to cross-verify your projections.Southwest Gas Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Southwest Gas' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Southwest Gas' future price movements. Getting to know how Southwest Gas' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Southwest Gas may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BIPC | Brookfield Infrastructure Corp | (0.46) | 15 per month | 1.43 | (0.03) | 2.14 | (2.37) | 6.76 | |
| SR | Spire Inc | (0.86) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.56 | (2.11) | 4.16 | |
| OGS | One Gas | (0.86) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.23 | (1.65) | 4.05 | |
| TXNM | TXNM Energy | 0.16 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 0.52 | (0.29) | 1.45 | |
| CMS | CMS Energy | 0.76 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.27 | (1.56) | 5.00 | |
| NJR | NewJersey Resources | (0.86) | 8 per month | 1.04 | (0.02) | 1.64 | (1.92) | 7.11 | |
| PCG | PGE Corp | (0.04) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.79 | (2.31) | 6.66 | |
| ENIC | Enel Chile SA | (0.04) | 3 per month | 1.43 | 0.1 | 2.38 | (2.00) | 8.05 | |
| UGI | UGI Corporation | (0.04) | 22 per month | 0.68 | 0.16 | 2.40 | (1.16) | 10.28 |
Other Forecasting Options for Southwest Gas
For every potential investor in Southwest, whether a beginner or expert, Southwest Gas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Southwest Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Southwest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Southwest Gas' price trends.Southwest Gas Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Southwest Gas stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Southwest Gas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Southwest Gas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Southwest Gas Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Southwest Gas stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Southwest Gas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Southwest Gas stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Southwest Gas Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Southwest Gas Risk Indicators
The analysis of Southwest Gas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Southwest Gas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting southwest stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8449 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9653 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Variance | 1.32 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.31 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9319 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.94) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Southwest Gas
The number of cover stories for Southwest Gas depends on current market conditions and Southwest Gas' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Southwest Gas is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Southwest Gas' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Southwest Gas Short Properties
Southwest Gas' future price predictability will typically decrease when Southwest Gas' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Southwest Gas Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Southwest Gas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Southwest Gas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 72 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 363.8 M |
Additional Tools for Southwest Stock Analysis
When running Southwest Gas' price analysis, check to measure Southwest Gas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Southwest Gas is operating at the current time. Most of Southwest Gas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Southwest Gas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Southwest Gas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Southwest Gas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.