TransAlta Corp Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| TAC Stock | USD 12.78 0.77 5.68% |
TransAlta Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast TransAlta Corp stock prices and determine the direction of TransAlta Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of TransAlta Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of TransAlta Corp's share price is approaching 43. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling TransAlta Corp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using TransAlta Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TransAlta Corp from the perspective of TransAlta Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TransAlta Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.31. TransAlta Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 12.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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TransAlta Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TransAlta price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TransAlta using various technical indicators. When you analyze TransAlta charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TransAlta Corp Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TransAlta Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.31.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TransAlta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TransAlta Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TransAlta Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
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TransAlta Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TransAlta Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TransAlta Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.78 and 15.75, respectively. We have considered TransAlta Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TransAlta Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TransAlta Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.056 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2933 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0214 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.3053 |
Predictive Modules for TransAlta Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TransAlta Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TransAlta Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TransAlta Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TransAlta Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TransAlta Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TransAlta Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TransAlta Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TransAlta Corp's historical news coverage. TransAlta Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.79 and 15.77, respectively. We have considered TransAlta Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TransAlta Corp is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TransAlta Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
TransAlta Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TransAlta Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TransAlta Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TransAlta Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 2.99 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.78 | 12.78 | 0.00 |
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TransAlta Corp Hype Timeline
On the 1st of February TransAlta Corp is traded for 12.78. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.13. TransAlta is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.37%. %. The volatility of related hype on TransAlta Corp is about 848.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.65. About 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 126.14. TransAlta Corp recorded a loss per share of 0.44. The entity last dividend was issued on the 27th of February 2026. The firm had 1:8 split on the June 5, 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TransAlta Corp to cross-verify your projections.TransAlta Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TransAlta Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TransAlta Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how TransAlta Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TransAlta Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ELP | Companhia Paranaense De | (0.35) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.68 | (4.31) | 10.56 | |
| IDA | IDACORP | (0.17) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.42 | (1.60) | 4.65 | |
| KEN | Kenon Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.69 | 0.23 | 3.73 | (2.46) | 10.72 | |
| NRG | NRG Energy | (1.85) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.08 | (4.94) | 11.52 | |
| PAM | Pampa Energia SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.58 | (0.02) | 3.26 | (2.36) | 7.65 | |
| POR | Portland General Electric | (0.22) | 9 per month | 0.76 | 0.09 | 2.20 | (1.23) | 5.33 | |
| TXNM | TXNM Energy | (0.25) | 11 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.51 | (0.29) | 1.45 | |
| UTL | UNITIL | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.31 | 0.02 | 1.79 | (1.55) | 7.11 | |
| VST | Vistra Energy Corp | (0.33) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.05 | (5.88) | 18.01 |
Other Forecasting Options for TransAlta Corp
For every potential investor in TransAlta, whether a beginner or expert, TransAlta Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TransAlta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TransAlta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TransAlta Corp's price trends.TransAlta Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TransAlta Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TransAlta Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TransAlta Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TransAlta Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TransAlta Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TransAlta Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TransAlta Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TransAlta Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
TransAlta Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of TransAlta Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TransAlta Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting transalta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.99 | |||
| Variance | 8.93 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TransAlta Corp
The number of cover stories for TransAlta Corp depends on current market conditions and TransAlta Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TransAlta Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TransAlta Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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TransAlta Corp Short Properties
TransAlta Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when TransAlta Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of TransAlta Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential TransAlta Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TransAlta Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 296 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 337 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TransAlta Corp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade TransAlta Stock refer to our How to Trade TransAlta Stock guide.You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers sector continue expanding? Could TransAlta diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TransAlta Corp. If investors know TransAlta will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every TransAlta Corp data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of TransAlta Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of TransAlta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of TransAlta Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is TransAlta Corp's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because TransAlta Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect TransAlta Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TransAlta Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TransAlta Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, TransAlta Corp's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.