Trip Group Stock Forward View
| TCOM Stock | USD 59.40 2.05 3.57% |
Trip Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Trip Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Trip Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Trip Group fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Trip Group's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.881 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.6814 | EPS Estimate Current Year 45.6127 | EPS Estimate Next Year 29.7596 | Wall Street Target Price 86.7162 |
Using Trip Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Trip Group Ltd from the perspective of Trip Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Trip Group using Trip Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Trip using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Trip Group's stock price.
Trip Group Short Interest
An investor who is long Trip Group may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Trip Group and may potentially protect profits, hedge Trip Group with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 66.8974 | Short Percent 0.0159 | Short Ratio 3.15 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.9 M | 50 Day MA 68.654 |
Trip Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Trip Group Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 62.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.07.Trip Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Trip Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Trip. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Trip can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Trip Group Ltd. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Trip Group's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Trip Group.
Trip Group Implied Volatility | 0.64 |
Trip Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Trip Group Ltd stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Trip Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Trip Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when Trip Group's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Trip Group Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 62.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.07. Trip Group after-hype prediction price | USD 59.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trip Group to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Trip contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Trip Group Ltd will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.04% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Trip Group trading at USD 59.4, that is roughly USD 0.0238 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Trip Group's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Trip Group Ltd options at the current volatility level of 0.64%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Trip Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Trip Group's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Trip Group's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Trip Group stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Trip Group's open interest, investors have to compare it to Trip Group's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Trip Group is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Trip. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Trip Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Trip price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Trip using various technical indicators. When you analyze Trip charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Trip Group Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Trip Group's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2001-12-31 | Previous Quarter 58.3 B | Current Value 59.2 B | Quarterly Volatility 15.3 B |
Trip Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Trip Group Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 62.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80, mean absolute percentage error of 6.68, and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.07.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Trip Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Trip Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Trip Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Trip Group | Trip Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Trip Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Trip Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Trip Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 59.41 and 65.02, respectively. We have considered Trip Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Trip Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Trip Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0104 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8044 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0266 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 110.0711 |
Predictive Modules for Trip Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trip Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Trip Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Trip Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Trip Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Trip Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Trip Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Trip Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Trip Group's historical news coverage. Trip Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 56.84 and 62.40, respectively. We have considered Trip Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Trip Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Trip Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Trip Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Trip Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Trip Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Trip Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 2.81 | 0.23 | 1.35 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
59.40 | 59.62 | 0.37 |
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Trip Group Hype Timeline
Trip Group is at this time traded for 59.40. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.35. Trip is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 59.62 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.37%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Trip Group is about 64.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 58.05. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 53.29 B. Net Income was 17.23 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 48.23 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trip Group to cross-verify your projections.Trip Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Trip Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Trip Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Trip Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Trip Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JD | JD Inc Adr | (0.30) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.75 | (2.03) | 7.11 | |
| F | Ford Motor | (0.05) | 8 per month | 1.20 | 0.02 | 3.38 | (2.35) | 7.16 | |
| DHI | DR Horton | (5.29) | 9 per month | 1.59 | 0.03 | 4.74 | (3.27) | 11.16 | |
| EXPE | Expedia Group | (41.07) | 6 per month | 3.27 | 0.03 | 4.47 | (3.12) | 32.81 | |
| ROST | Ross Stores | (0.04) | 10 per month | 0.54 | 0.13 | 1.44 | (1.02) | 11.17 | |
| CPRT | Copart Inc | 0.26 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.22 | (2.82) | 6.69 | |
| CMG | Chipotle Mexican Grill | 0.79 | 7 per month | 1.44 | 0.13 | 4.22 | (2.81) | 10.79 | |
| LVS | Las Vegas Sands | 0.53 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.68 | (2.74) | 17.81 | |
| EBAY | eBay Inc | (0.27) | 8 per month | 1.89 | 0.0002 | 2.81 | (3.25) | 11.00 | |
| CCL | Carnival | 1.86 | 8 per month | 2.51 | 0.07 | 8.08 | (3.63) | 13.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for Trip Group
For every potential investor in Trip, whether a beginner or expert, Trip Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Trip Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Trip. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Trip Group's price trends.Trip Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Trip Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Trip Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trip Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Trip Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Trip Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Trip Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Trip Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Trip Group Ltd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Trip Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Trip Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trip Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trip stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.78 | |||
| Variance | 7.73 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Trip Group
The number of cover stories for Trip Group depends on current market conditions and Trip Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Trip Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Trip Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Trip Group Short Properties
Trip Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Trip Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Trip Group Ltd often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Trip Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trip Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 688.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 76.9 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trip Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Will Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines sector continue expanding? Could Trip diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trip Group. If investors know Trip will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Trip Group data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.881 | Earnings Share 3.73 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.155 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Trip Group using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Trip Group's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Trip Group's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trip Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trip Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Trip Group's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.