Terex Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TEX Stock | USD 59.59 0.90 1.49% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Terex on the next trading day is expected to be 59.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.53. Terex Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Terex's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.25) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.3209 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.898 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.64 | Wall Street Target Price 64.153 |
Using Terex hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Terex from the perspective of Terex response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Terex using Terex's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Terex using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Terex's stock price.
Terex Short Interest
An investor who is long Terex may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Terex and may potentially protect profits, hedge Terex with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 48.6985 | Short Percent 0.1842 | Short Ratio 6.3 | Shares Short Prior Month 6 M | 50 Day MA 51.6824 |
Terex Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Terex's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Terex. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Terex can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Terex. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Terex Implied Volatility | 0.65 |
Terex's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Terex stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Terex's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Terex stock will not fluctuate a lot when Terex's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Terex on the next trading day is expected to be 59.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.53. Terex after-hype prediction price | USD 61.57 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Terex to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Terex contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Terex will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0406% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Terex trading at USD 59.59, that is roughly USD 0.0242 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Terex's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Terex options at the current volatility level of 0.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Terex Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Terex's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Terex's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Terex stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Terex's open interest, investors have to compare it to Terex's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Terex is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Terex. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Terex Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Terex price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Terex using various technical indicators. When you analyze Terex charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Terex Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Terex on the next trading day is expected to be 59.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99, mean absolute percentage error of 2.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 59.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Terex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Terex's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Terex Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Terex | Terex Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Terex Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Terex's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Terex's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 56.62 and 62.56, respectively. We have considered Terex's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Terex stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Terex stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1683 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0222 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9922 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0196 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 59.53 |
Predictive Modules for Terex
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Terex. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Terex's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Terex After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Terex at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Terex or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Terex, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Terex Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Terex's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Terex's historical news coverage. Terex's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 58.60 and 64.54, respectively. We have considered Terex's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Terex is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Terex is based on 3 months time horizon.
Terex Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Terex is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Terex backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Terex, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 2.97 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
59.59 | 61.57 | 0.02 |
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Terex Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Terex is traded for 59.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.1. Terex is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 61.57. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Terex is about 410.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 59.69. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.97. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Terex has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.64. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 17th of July 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Terex to cross-verify your projections.Terex Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Terex's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Terex's future price movements. Getting to know how Terex's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Terex may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| REVG | Rev Group | (0.04) | 12 per month | 2.36 | 0.09 | 3.48 | (3.10) | 14.08 | |
| UNF | Unifirst | 9.18 | 8 per month | 1.70 | 0.1 | 2.91 | (2.50) | 19.18 | |
| TNET | TriNet Group | 1.52 | 7 per month | 2.16 | (0.01) | 3.69 | (3.30) | 9.52 | |
| ALG | Alamo Group | (0.53) | 10 per month | 1.40 | 0.01 | 2.47 | (2.08) | 8.89 | |
| AZZ | AZZ Incorporated | (0.42) | 8 per month | 1.05 | 0.17 | 3.39 | (2.35) | 8.01 | |
| SXI | Standex International | 6.22 | 11 per month | 2.05 | 0 | 3.49 | (2.82) | 12.69 | |
| KAI | Kadant Inc | (10.19) | 10 per month | 1.73 | 0.02 | 4.03 | (2.93) | 10.20 | |
| MGRC | McGrath RentCorp | (0.21) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.75 | (1.84) | 7.75 | |
| HURN | Huron Consulting Group | 2.11 | 8 per month | 1.11 | 0.08 | 2.53 | (2.24) | 14.24 | |
| CBZ | CBIZ Inc | (0.41) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.84 | (3.46) | 14.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for Terex
For every potential investor in Terex, whether a beginner or expert, Terex's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Terex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Terex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Terex's price trends.Terex Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Terex stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Terex could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Terex by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Terex Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Terex stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Terex shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Terex stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Terex entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Terex Risk Indicators
The analysis of Terex's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Terex's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting terex stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.12 | |||
| Variance | 9.74 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Terex
The number of cover stories for Terex depends on current market conditions and Terex's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Terex is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Terex's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Terex Short Properties
Terex's future price predictability will typically decrease when Terex's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Terex often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Terex's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Terex's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 388 M |
Additional Tools for Terex Stock Analysis
When running Terex's price analysis, check to measure Terex's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Terex is operating at the current time. Most of Terex's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Terex's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Terex's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Terex to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.