Triple Flag Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| TFPM Stock | 52.77 0.90 1.68% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Triple Flag Precious on the next trading day is expected to be 54.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.09. Triple Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Triple Flag's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Triple Flag's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Triple Flag fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Triple Flag's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.038 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2771 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9951 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.2767 | Wall Street Target Price 56.5682 |
Using Triple Flag hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Triple Flag Precious from the perspective of Triple Flag response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Triple Flag Precious on the next trading day is expected to be 54.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.09. Triple Flag after-hype prediction price | CAD 52.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Triple |
Triple Flag Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Triple price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Triple using various technical indicators. When you analyze Triple charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Triple Flag Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Triple Flag Precious on the next trading day is expected to be 54.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94, mean absolute percentage error of 1.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.09.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Triple Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Triple Flag's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Triple Flag Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Triple Flag | Triple Flag Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Triple Flag Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Triple Flag's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Triple Flag's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 52.43 and 56.89, respectively. We have considered Triple Flag's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Triple Flag stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Triple Flag stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3969 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9358 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0207 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 57.0855 |
Predictive Modules for Triple Flag
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Triple Flag Precious. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Triple Flag After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Triple Flag at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Triple Flag or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Triple Flag, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Triple Flag Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Triple Flag's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Triple Flag's historical news coverage. Triple Flag's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 50.05 and 54.51, respectively. We have considered Triple Flag's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Triple Flag is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Triple Flag Precious is based on 3 months time horizon.
Triple Flag Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Triple Flag is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Triple Flag backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Triple Flag, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.52 | 2.23 | 0.49 | 1.82 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
52.77 | 52.28 | 0.93 |
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Triple Flag Hype Timeline
Triple Flag Precious is at this time traded for 52.77on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.49, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.82. Triple is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 52.28. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.93%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.52%. The volatility of related hype on Triple Flag is about 63.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 50.95. About 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Triple Flag was at this time reported as 13.22. The company last dividend was issued on the 1st of December 2025. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triple Flag to cross-verify your projections.Triple Flag Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Triple Flag's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Triple Flag's future price movements. Getting to know how Triple Flag's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Triple Flag may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CGG | China Gold International | 0.08 | 5 per month | 1.98 | 0.27 | 5.29 | (4.04) | 15.34 | |
| OR | Osisko Gold Ro | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.55 | 0.16 | 4.09 | (2.87) | 8.42 | |
| NGD | New Gold | (5.31) | 2 per month | 2.09 | 0.27 | 7.68 | (3.10) | 20.09 | |
| GMIN | G Mining Ventures | 2.05 | 9 per month | 2.87 | 0.23 | 6.60 | (4.24) | 15.99 | |
| HBM | HudBay Minerals | (0.18) | 6 per month | 2.04 | 0.25 | 5.44 | (2.67) | 11.89 | |
| BTO | B2Gold Corp | (1.03) | 1 per month | 3.14 | (0.01) | 4.60 | (4.55) | 12.91 | |
| ARTG | Artemis Gold | (1.57) | 4 per month | 2.12 | 0.15 | 6.14 | (4.09) | 12.17 | |
| ELD | Eldorado Gold Corp | 0.46 | 10 per month | 1.19 | 0.34 | 4.82 | (2.84) | 11.64 | |
| OGC | OceanaGold | (29.65) | 4 per month | 1.85 | 0.29 | 4.57 | (3.88) | 11.33 | |
| CS | Capstone Mining Corp | 0.17 | 6 per month | 2.67 | 0.15 | 7.47 | (5.97) | 15.37 |
Other Forecasting Options for Triple Flag
For every potential investor in Triple, whether a beginner or expert, Triple Flag's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Triple Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Triple. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Triple Flag's price trends.Triple Flag Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Triple Flag stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Triple Flag could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Triple Flag by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Triple Flag Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Triple Flag stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Triple Flag shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Triple Flag stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Triple Flag Precious entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Triple Flag Risk Indicators
The analysis of Triple Flag's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Triple Flag's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting triple stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.68 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Variance | 5.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.63 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.81 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.18) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Triple Flag
The number of cover stories for Triple Flag depends on current market conditions and Triple Flag's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Triple Flag is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Triple Flag's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Triple Flag Short Properties
Triple Flag's future price predictability will typically decrease when Triple Flag's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Triple Flag Precious often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Triple Flag's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Triple Flag's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 202.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 39.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triple Flag to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.