TFS Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TFSL Stock | USD 14.52 0.14 0.97% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TFS Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 14.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.51. TFS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although TFS Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of TFS Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of TFS Financial fundamentals over time.
TFS |
TFS Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of TFS Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 14.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TFS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TFS Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TFS Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
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TFS Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TFS Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TFS Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.75 and 16.28, respectively. We have considered TFS Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TFS Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TFS Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.3868 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0242 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1585 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.5091 |
Predictive Modules for TFS Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TFS Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TFS Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for TFS Financial
For every potential investor in TFS, whether a beginner or expert, TFS Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TFS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TFS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TFS Financial's price trends.View TFS Financial Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TFS Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of TFS Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of TFS Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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TFS Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TFS Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TFS Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TFS Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TFS Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
TFS Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of TFS Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TFS Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tfs stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Variance | 3.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TFS Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy TFS Stock please use our How to buy in TFS Stock guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TFS Financial. If investors know TFS will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about TFS Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Dividend Share 1.13 | Earnings Share 0.28 | Revenue Per Share 1.095 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets 0.0047 |
The market value of TFS Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of TFS that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of TFS Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is TFS Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because TFS Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect TFS Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TFS Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TFS Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, TFS Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.