Tredegar Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TG Stock | USD 8.59 0.34 4.12% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tredegar on the next trading day is expected to be 8.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.19. Tredegar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Tredegar's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength momentum indicator of Tredegar's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | Wall Street Target Price 17 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.335 |
Using Tredegar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tredegar from the perspective of Tredegar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Tredegar using Tredegar's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Tredegar using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Tredegar's stock price.
Tredegar Implied Volatility | 1.09 |
Tredegar's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Tredegar stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Tredegar's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Tredegar stock will not fluctuate a lot when Tredegar's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tredegar on the next trading day is expected to be 8.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.19. Tredegar after-hype prediction price | USD 8.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tredegar to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Tredegar contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Tredegar will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0681% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Tredegar trading at USD 8.59, that is roughly USD 0.005852 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Tredegar's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Tredegar options at the current volatility level of 1.09%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Tredegar Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Tredegar's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Tredegar's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Tredegar stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Tredegar's open interest, investors have to compare it to Tredegar's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Tredegar is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Tredegar. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Tredegar Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tredegar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tredegar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tredegar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Tredegar Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tredegar on the next trading day is expected to be 8.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tredegar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tredegar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tredegar Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tredegar | Tredegar Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Tredegar Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Tredegar's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tredegar's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.00 and 12.18, respectively. We have considered Tredegar's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tredegar stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tredegar stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3693 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0182 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.167 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0219 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.19 |
Predictive Modules for Tredegar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tredegar. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Tredegar After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tredegar at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tredegar or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tredegar, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tredegar Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tredegar's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tredegar's historical news coverage. Tredegar's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.02 and 12.20, respectively. We have considered Tredegar's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tredegar is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tredegar is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tredegar Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tredegar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tredegar backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tredegar, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 3.59 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.59 | 8.61 | 0.23 |
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Tredegar Hype Timeline
As of January 23, 2026 Tredegar is listed for 8.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Tredegar is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 8.61 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.23%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Tredegar is about 6189.66%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.61. The company generated the yearly revenue of 598.02 M. Annual Net Loss to common stockholders was (64.56 M) with gross profit of 102.51 M. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tredegar to cross-verify your projections.Tredegar Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tredegar's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tredegar's future price movements. Getting to know how Tredegar's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tredegar may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PESI | Perma Fix Environmental Svcs | 0.97 | 10 per month | 3.57 | 0.04 | 5.98 | (6.28) | 26.62 | |
| SHMD | SCHMID Group NV | (0.35) | 7 per month | 6.50 | 0.17 | 16.73 | (10.85) | 40.89 | |
| TWIN | Twin Disc Incorporated | 0.06 | 9 per month | 2.16 | 0.11 | 4.46 | (3.01) | 13.41 | |
| PPIH | Perma Pipe International Holdings | (0.23) | 8 per month | 2.44 | 0.08 | 5.23 | (3.85) | 21.94 | |
| SLND | Southland Holdings | (0.15) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 8.20 | (10.06) | 24.86 | |
| NVX | Novonix Ltd ADR | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 12.95 | (10.43) | 33.61 | |
| SPCE | Virgin Galactic Holdings | 0.14 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 6.71 | (7.90) | 27.80 | |
| PAMT | PAMT P | 0.08 | 5 per month | 3.27 | (0.01) | 6.06 | (6.15) | 17.24 | |
| SLDP | Solid Power | 0.21 | 10 per month | 5.90 | 0 | 9.41 | (8.23) | 72.11 | |
| FC | Franklin Covey | (0.13) | 9 per month | 2.90 | 0.07 | 5.11 | (5.20) | 15.18 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tredegar
For every potential investor in Tredegar, whether a beginner or expert, Tredegar's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tredegar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tredegar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tredegar's price trends.Tredegar Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tredegar stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tredegar could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tredegar by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tredegar Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tredegar stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tredegar shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tredegar stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tredegar entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 36801.52 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5574 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.04 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.7 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.005 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.34 |
Tredegar Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tredegar's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tredegar's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tredegar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.51 | |||
| Variance | 12.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.57) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tredegar
The number of cover stories for Tredegar depends on current market conditions and Tredegar's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tredegar is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tredegar's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Tredegar Short Properties
Tredegar's future price predictability will typically decrease when Tredegar's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tredegar often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tredegar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tredegar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 34.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tredegar to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Tredegar Stock please use our How to Invest in Tredegar guide.You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Is Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tredegar. If investors know Tredegar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Tredegar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.81) | Earnings Share 0.07 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.335 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Tredegar is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Tredegar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Tredegar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Tredegar's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Tredegar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Tredegar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tredegar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Tredegar is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tredegar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.