Treasure Global Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

TGL Stock  USD 5.36  0.28  4.96%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Treasure Global on the next trading day is expected to be 5.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.71. Treasure Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Treasure Global's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Treasure Global's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Treasure Global fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength indicator of Treasure Global's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Treasure Global's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Treasure Global and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Treasure Global's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Treasure Global, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Treasure Global's stock price prediction:
Wall Street Target Price
31.5
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.12)
Using Treasure Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Treasure Global from the perspective of Treasure Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Treasure Global Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Treasure Global's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Treasure. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Treasure can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Treasure Global. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Treasure Global on the next trading day is expected to be 5.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.71.

Treasure Global after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 5.27  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Treasure Global to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Treasure Stock please use our How to buy in Treasure Stock guide.

Treasure Global Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Treasure price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Treasure using various technical indicators. When you analyze Treasure charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Treasure Global simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Treasure Global are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Treasure Global prices get older.

Treasure Global Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Treasure Global on the next trading day is expected to be 5.42 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.23, mean absolute percentage error of 8.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Treasure Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Treasure Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Treasure Global Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Treasure GlobalTreasure Global Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Treasure Global Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Treasure Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Treasure Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 43.39, respectively. We have considered Treasure Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.36
5.42
Expected Value
43.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Treasure Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Treasure Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.3666
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.2303
MADMean absolute deviation1.2285
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1063
SAESum of the absolute errors73.7079
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Treasure Global forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Treasure Global observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Treasure Global

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Treasure Global. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.265.2743.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.265.1543.12
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
0.048.0616.07
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Treasure Global. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Treasure Global's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Treasure Global's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Treasure Global.

Treasure Global After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Treasure Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Treasure Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Treasure Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Treasure Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Treasure Global's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Treasure Global's historical news coverage. Treasure Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.26 and 43.24, respectively. We have considered Treasure Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
5.36
5.27
After-hype Price
43.24
Upside
Treasure Global is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Treasure Global is based on 3 months time horizon.

Treasure Global Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Treasure Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Treasure Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Treasure Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.46 
37.97
  0.09 
  0.35 
7 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
5.36
5.27
1.68 
63,283  
Notes

Treasure Global Hype Timeline

On the 23rd of January Treasure Global is traded for 5.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.35. Treasure is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 5.27. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -1.68%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 1.46%. The volatility of related hype on Treasure Global is about 15690.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.01. About 23.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.73. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Treasure Global recorded a loss per share of 51.77. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:20 split on the 5th of December 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Treasure Global to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Treasure Stock please use our How to buy in Treasure Stock guide.

Treasure Global Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Treasure Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Treasure Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Treasure Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Treasure Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
OLBOLB Group 0.01 10 per month 0.00 (0.09) 10.53 (8.77) 28.64 
FRGTFreight Technologies(0.13)9 per month 0.00 (0.21) 9.52 (16.43) 55.36 
MYSZMy Size 0.06 9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 11.39 (8.25) 26.97 
WLDSWearable Devices(0.03)8 per month 0.00 (0.18) 10.53 (9.80) 53.88 
AUUDAuddia Inc 0.02 8 per month 0.00 (0.10) 15.15 (12.93) 36.34 
IMTEIntegrated Media Technology(0.02)10 per month 5.92 (0) 9.26 (9.76) 63.84 
COE51Talk Online Education(1.79)8 per month 0.00 (0.23) 5.54 (10.63) 24.35 
ULYUrgently Common Stock(0.03)10 per month 5.61  0.0003  15.23 (10.00) 67.64 
MAPSWM Technology(0.01)8 per month 0.00 (0.09) 6.17 (5.88) 25.13 
APCXApptech Corp(0.50)24 per month 7.71  0.17  21.62 (10.81) 95.15 

Other Forecasting Options for Treasure Global

For every potential investor in Treasure, whether a beginner or expert, Treasure Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Treasure Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Treasure. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Treasure Global's price trends.

Treasure Global Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Treasure Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Treasure Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Treasure Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Treasure Global Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Treasure Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Treasure Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Treasure Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Treasure Global entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Treasure Global Risk Indicators

The analysis of Treasure Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Treasure Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting treasure stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Treasure Global

The number of cover stories for Treasure Global depends on current market conditions and Treasure Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Treasure Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Treasure Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Treasure Global Short Properties

Treasure Global's future price predictability will typically decrease when Treasure Global's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Treasure Global often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Treasure Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Treasure Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments236.9 K
When determining whether Treasure Global is a strong investment it is important to analyze Treasure Global's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Treasure Global's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Treasure Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Treasure Global to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Treasure Stock please use our How to buy in Treasure Stock guide.
You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Treasure Global. If investors know Treasure will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Treasure Global listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(51.77)
Revenue Per Share
17.848
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.12)
Return On Assets
(0.33)
Return On Equity
(2.69)
The market value of Treasure Global is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Treasure that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Treasure Global's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Treasure Global's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Treasure Global's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Treasure Global's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Treasure Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Treasure Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Treasure Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.