TKO Group Stock Forward View
| TKO Stock | 211.90 3.74 1.80% |
TKO Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although TKO Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of TKO Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of TKO Group fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of TKO Group's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.65 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.33 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.4511 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.6 | Wall Street Target Price 227.579 |
Using TKO Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TKO Group Holdings from the perspective of TKO Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards TKO Group using TKO Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards TKO using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of TKO Group's stock price.
TKO Group Short Interest
An investor who is long TKO Group may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about TKO Group and may potentially protect profits, hedge TKO Group with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 184.8875 | Short Percent 0.0997 | Short Ratio 7.07 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.8 M | 50 Day MA 204.4606 |
TKO Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of TKO Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 215.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 192.72.TKO Group Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to TKO Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in TKO. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding TKO can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around TKO Group Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of TKO Group's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about TKO Group.
TKO Group Implied Volatility | 0.38 |
TKO Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of TKO Group Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if TKO Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that TKO Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when TKO Group's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of TKO Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 215.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 192.72. TKO Group after-hype prediction price | USD 210.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TKO Group to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current TKO contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that TKO Group Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0238% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With TKO Group trading at USD 211.9, that is roughly USD 0.0503 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating TKO Group's daily price movement you should consider acquiring TKO Group Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 TKO Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast TKO Group's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in TKO Group's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for TKO Group stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current TKO Group's open interest, investors have to compare it to TKO Group's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of TKO Group is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in TKO. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
TKO Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TKO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TKO using various technical indicators. When you analyze TKO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TKO Group Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the TKO Group's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 604.4 M | Current Value 321.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 245 M |
TKO Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of TKO Group Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 215.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.16, mean absolute percentage error of 14.71, and the sum of the absolute errors of 192.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TKO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TKO Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TKO Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TKO Group | TKO Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
TKO Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TKO Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TKO Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 213.97 and 217.56, respectively. We have considered TKO Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TKO Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TKO Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.7988 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.1593 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0159 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 192.7183 |
Predictive Modules for TKO Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TKO Group Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TKO Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TKO Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TKO Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TKO Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TKO Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TKO Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TKO Group's historical news coverage. TKO Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 208.53 and 212.09, respectively. We have considered TKO Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TKO Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TKO Group Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
TKO Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TKO Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TKO Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TKO Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 1.79 | 1.59 | 0.19 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
211.90 | 210.31 | 0.75 |
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TKO Group Hype Timeline
On the 9th of February TKO Group Holdings is traded for 211.90. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.59, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.19. TKO is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 210.31. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 32.66%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.75%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on TKO Group is about 279.69%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 211.71. About 17.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of TKO Group was at this time reported as 48.42. The company last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TKO Group to cross-verify your projections.TKO Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TKO Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TKO Group's future price movements. Getting to know how TKO Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TKO Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NWSA | News Corp A | (0.17) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.60 | (2.18) | 13.11 | |
| WMG | Warner Music Group | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.77 | (2.66) | 10.13 | |
| ROKU | Roku Inc | (0.91) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.95 | (5.24) | 12.47 | |
| OMC | Omnicom Group | (1.73) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.44 | (2.65) | 16.86 | |
| PSKY | Paramount Skydance | (0.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 3.87 | (5.43) | 19.63 | |
| Z | Zillow Group Class | (3.58) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 3.15 | (4.47) | 14.68 | |
| TLK | Telkom Indonesia Tbk | (0.05) | 6 per month | 2.74 | (0.02) | 2.94 | (3.02) | 17.24 | |
| SNAP | Snap Inc | (0.24) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 4.89 | (5.61) | 23.09 | |
| TWLO | Twilio Inc | 1.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.10 | (4.50) | 14.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for TKO Group
For every potential investor in TKO, whether a beginner or expert, TKO Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TKO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TKO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TKO Group's price trends.TKO Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TKO Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TKO Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TKO Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TKO Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TKO Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TKO Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TKO Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TKO Group Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
TKO Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of TKO Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TKO Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tko stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Variance | 3.24 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.01 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.02 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.26) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TKO Group
The number of cover stories for TKO Group depends on current market conditions and TKO Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TKO Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TKO Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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TKO Group Short Properties
TKO Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when TKO Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of TKO Group Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential TKO Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TKO Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 171.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 525.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TKO Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.
Will Movies & Entertainment sector continue expanding? Could TKO diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TKO Group. If investors know TKO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every TKO Group data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.65 | Dividend Share 1.52 | Earnings Share 2.63 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.27) |
Investors evaluate TKO Group Holdings using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating TKO Group's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause TKO Group's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TKO Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TKO Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, TKO Group's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.