Talon Capital Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TLNC Stock | 10.13 0.02 0.20% |
Talon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Talon Capital stock prices and determine the direction of Talon Capital Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Talon Capital's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Talon Capital's share price is at 57. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Talon Capital, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Talon Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Talon Capital Corp from the perspective of Talon Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Talon Capital Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.88. Talon Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 10.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Talon Capital to cross-verify your projections. Talon Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Talon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Talon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Talon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Talon Capital Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Talon Capital Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 10.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Talon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Talon Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Talon Capital Stock Forecast Pattern
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Talon Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Talon Capital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Talon Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.93 and 10.33, respectively. We have considered Talon Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Talon Capital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Talon Capital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.2594 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0025 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0144 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0014 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.8787 |
Predictive Modules for Talon Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Talon Capital Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Talon Capital After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Talon Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Talon Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Talon Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Talon Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Talon Capital's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Talon Capital's historical news coverage. Talon Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.93 and 10.33, respectively. We have considered Talon Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Talon Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Talon Capital Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Talon Capital Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Talon Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Talon Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Talon Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 2 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.13 | 10.13 | 0.00 |
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Talon Capital Hype Timeline
Talon Capital Corp is at this time traded for 10.13. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.02. Talon is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Talon Capital is about 17.11%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 10.15. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Talon Capital to cross-verify your projections.Talon Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Talon Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Talon Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Talon Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Talon Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BAC | Bank of America | (0.73) | 6 per month | 1.35 | (0.04) | 1.68 | (2.16) | 5.64 | |
| YFYA | Listed Funds Trust | (0.02) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.32) | 0.20 | (0.20) | 0.82 | |
| MRK | Merck Company | 1.34 | 8 per month | 1.11 | 0.15 | 3.59 | (1.98) | 8.09 | |
| PODD | Insulet | (4.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.24 | (3.62) | 13.53 | |
| WEN | The Wendys Co | (0.14) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.07 | (4.04) | 11.11 | |
| EAT | Brinker International | 1.40 | 10 per month | 2.58 | 0.07 | 6.16 | (4.67) | 12.88 | |
| TWEIX | Equity Income Fund | 15.04 | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1.06 | (0.81) | 8.81 | |
| PZZA | Papa Johns International | (1.90) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 4.51 | (4.96) | 14.50 | |
| TILE | Interface | 0.75 | 12 per month | 1.75 | 0.06 | 2.93 | (2.51) | 8.15 | |
| PSMO | Pacer Swan SOS | (0.01) | 2 per month | 0.27 | (0.12) | 0.56 | (0.62) | 2.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Talon Capital
For every potential investor in Talon, whether a beginner or expert, Talon Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Talon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Talon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Talon Capital's price trends.Talon Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Talon Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Talon Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Talon Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Talon Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Talon Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Talon Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Talon Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Talon Capital Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Talon Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Talon Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Talon Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting talon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1347 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.0614 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1896 | |||
| Variance | 0.036 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0703 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0038 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.23) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Talon Capital
The number of cover stories for Talon Capital depends on current market conditions and Talon Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Talon Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Talon Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Talon Capital to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Is Diversified Capital Markets space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Talon Capital. If investors know Talon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Talon Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Talon Capital Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Talon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Talon Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Talon Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Talon Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Talon Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Talon Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Talon Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Talon Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.