Tilray Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| TLRY Stock | CAD 10.18 0.07 0.68% |
Tilray Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Tilray's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Tilray's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Tilray fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Tilray's share price is approaching 49. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Tilray, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year 0.0152 | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.29) | Wall Street Target Price 16.2247 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.031 |
Using Tilray hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tilray Inc from the perspective of Tilray response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tilray Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 10.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.62. Tilray after-hype prediction price | CAD 9.49 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Tilray |
Tilray Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Tilray price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tilray using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tilray charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Tilray Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tilray Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 10.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.67, mean absolute percentage error of 2.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.62.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tilray Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tilray's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tilray Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tilray | Tilray Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Tilray Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Tilray's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tilray's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.10 and 122.19, respectively. We have considered Tilray's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tilray stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tilray stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2739 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6715 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.069 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 39.62 |
Predictive Modules for Tilray
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tilray Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Tilray After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Tilray at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tilray or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tilray, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Tilray Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Tilray's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tilray's historical news coverage. Tilray's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.47 and 1,027, respectively. We have considered Tilray's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Tilray is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tilray Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Tilray Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Tilray is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tilray backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tilray, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
13.67 | 112.14 | 169.64 | 1.28 | 4 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
10.18 | 9.49 | 6.82 |
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Tilray Hype Timeline
Tilray Inc is at this time traded for 10.18on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -169.64, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.28. Tilray is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 9.49. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -6.82%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 13.67%. The volatility of related hype on Tilray is about 119297.87%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.90. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.56. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Tilray Inc recorded a loss per share of 31.99. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 2nd of December 2025. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tilray to cross-verify your projections.Tilray Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Tilray's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tilray's future price movements. Getting to know how Tilray's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tilray may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BHC | Bausch Health Companies | (0.11) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.34 | (4.64) | 23.56 | |
| CURA | Curaleaf Holdings | (0.17) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 9.73 | (7.49) | 69.89 | |
| CRON | Cronos Group | (0.02) | 1 per month | 2.29 | (0.01) | 4.53 | (3.40) | 21.52 | |
| LFST | Lifeist Wellness | 0.00 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 14.29 | (12.50) | 57.27 | |
| WEED | Canopy Growth Corp | (0.17) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 7.88 | (7.83) | 65.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Tilray
For every potential investor in Tilray, whether a beginner or expert, Tilray's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tilray Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tilray. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tilray's price trends.Tilray Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tilray stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tilray could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tilray by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tilray Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tilray stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tilray shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tilray stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tilray Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Tilray Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tilray's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tilray's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tilray stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 27.67 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 108.71 | |||
| Variance | 11817.86 | |||
| Downside Variance | 32.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 14.52 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (41.08) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Tilray
The number of cover stories for Tilray depends on current market conditions and Tilray's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tilray is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tilray's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Tilray Short Properties
Tilray's future price predictability will typically decrease when Tilray's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tilray Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tilray's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tilray's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 90.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 256.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tilray to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.