Toyota Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| TM Stock | USD 224.12 1.50 0.66% |
Toyota Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Toyota's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Toyota's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Toyota fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Toyota's share price is at 55. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Toyota, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.665 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 5.694 | EPS Estimate Current Year 16.3777 | EPS Estimate Next Year 20.0747 | Wall Street Target Price 244.2267 |
Using Toyota hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Toyota Motor from the perspective of Toyota response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Toyota using Toyota's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Toyota using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Toyota's stock price.
Toyota Short Interest
An investor who is long Toyota may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Toyota and may potentially protect profits, hedge Toyota with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 193.8449 | Short Percent 0.0007 | Short Ratio 3.15 | Shares Short Prior Month 888.1 K | 50 Day MA 210.7502 |
Toyota Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Toyota Motor on the next trading day is expected to be 225.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 216.75.Toyota Motor Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Toyota's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Toyota. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Toyota can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Toyota Motor. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Toyota's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Toyota.
Toyota Implied Volatility | 0.41 |
Toyota's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Toyota Motor stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Toyota's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Toyota stock will not fluctuate a lot when Toyota's options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Toyota Motor on the next trading day is expected to be 225.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 216.75. Toyota after-hype prediction price | USD 224.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Toyota to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Toyota contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Toyota Motor will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0256% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Toyota trading at USD 224.12, that is roughly USD 0.0574 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Toyota's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Toyota Motor options at the current volatility level of 0.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Toyota Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Toyota's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Toyota's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Toyota stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Toyota's open interest, investors have to compare it to Toyota's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Toyota is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Toyota. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Toyota Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Toyota price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Toyota using various technical indicators. When you analyze Toyota charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Toyota Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Toyota Motor on the next trading day is expected to be 225.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.50, mean absolute percentage error of 18.62, and the sum of the absolute errors of 216.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Toyota Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Toyota's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Toyota Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Toyota | Toyota Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Toyota Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Toyota's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Toyota's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 223.93 and 227.10, respectively. We have considered Toyota's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Toyota stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Toyota stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.8725 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.496 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0167 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 216.7525 |
Predictive Modules for Toyota
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Toyota Motor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Toyota After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Toyota at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Toyota or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Toyota, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Toyota Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Toyota's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Toyota's historical news coverage. Toyota's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 222.77 and 225.91, respectively. We have considered Toyota's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Toyota is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Toyota Motor is based on 3 months time horizon.
Toyota Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Toyota is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Toyota backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Toyota, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.58 | 0.22 | 0.09 | 19 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 19 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
224.12 | 224.34 | 0.10 |
|
Toyota Hype Timeline
As of January 28, 2026 Toyota Motor is listed for 224.12. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Toyota is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 224.34 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 101.28%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Toyota is about 258.69%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 224.21. The company generated the yearly revenue of 48.04 T. Reported Net Income was 4.79 T with gross profit of 8.87 T. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 19 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Toyota to cross-verify your projections.Toyota Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Toyota's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Toyota's future price movements. Getting to know how Toyota's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Toyota may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NSANY | Nissan Motor Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.09 | (0.03) | 3.99 | (2.80) | 11.01 | |
| RACE | Ferrari NV | 3.67 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.01 | (2.82) | 7.22 | |
| STLA | Stellantis NV | 1.58 | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.66 | (4.19) | 12.93 | |
| GM | General Motors | 1.67 | 7 per month | 1.12 | 0.16 | 4.01 | (2.41) | 8.44 | |
| F | Ford Motor | 0.35 | 7 per month | 1.32 | 0.06 | 3.65 | (2.35) | 16.30 | |
| RIVN | Rivian Automotive | (0.42) | 7 per month | 3.17 | 0.06 | 10.70 | (6.11) | 31.17 | |
| LCID | Lucid Group | 1.34 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.28 | (7.29) | 21.68 | |
| XPEV | Xpeng Inc | (0.30) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 7.80 | (6.15) | 26.46 | |
| HMC | Honda Motor Co | 0.24 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.58 | (2.32) | 6.42 | |
| VWAGY | Volkswagen AG 110 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.19 | 0.11 | 2.87 | (2.43) | 6.25 | |
| POAHY | Porsche Automobile Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.45 | 0.04 | 2.51 | (2.17) | 10.42 | |
| TSLA | Tesla Inc | (0.07) | 11 per month | 2.72 | (0.03) | 4.08 | (4.62) | 11.44 | |
| NIO | Nio Class A | (0.12) | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 3.87 | (5.45) | 11.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for Toyota
For every potential investor in Toyota, whether a beginner or expert, Toyota's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Toyota Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Toyota. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Toyota's price trends.Toyota Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Toyota stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Toyota could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Toyota by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Toyota Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Toyota stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Toyota shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Toyota stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Toyota Motor entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1629.8 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.08) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 224.81 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 224.58 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.44) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.50) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 55.84 |
Toyota Risk Indicators
The analysis of Toyota's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Toyota's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting toyota stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Variance | 2.4 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.16 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.81 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.34) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Toyota
The number of cover stories for Toyota depends on current market conditions and Toyota's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Toyota is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Toyota's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Toyota Short Properties
Toyota's future price predictability will typically decrease when Toyota's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Toyota Motor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Toyota's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Toyota's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.9 T |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Toyota to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Automobile Manufacturers space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toyota. If investors know Toyota will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Toyota listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.665 | Dividend Share 95 | Earnings Share 22.77 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.082 |
The market value of Toyota Motor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Toyota that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Toyota's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Toyota's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Toyota's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Toyota's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toyota's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Toyota is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Toyota's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.