TRI Pointe Stock Forward View
| TPH Stock | USD 35.40 0.05 0.14% |
TRI Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of TRI Pointe's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 5th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of TRI Pointe's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using TRI Pointe hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TRI Pointe Homes from the perspective of TRI Pointe response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of TRI Pointe Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 32.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.52. TRI Pointe after-hype prediction price | USD 35.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TRI Pointe to cross-verify your projections. TRI Pointe Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TRI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TRI using various technical indicators. When you analyze TRI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TRI Pointe Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of TRI Pointe Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 32.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91, mean absolute percentage error of 1.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TRI Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TRI Pointe's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TRI Pointe Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TRI Pointe | TRI Pointe Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
TRI Pointe Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TRI Pointe's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TRI Pointe's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.56 and 35.04, respectively. We have considered TRI Pointe's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TRI Pointe stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TRI Pointe stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2733 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9102 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0273 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 55.5239 |
Predictive Modules for TRI Pointe
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TRI Pointe Homes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TRI Pointe After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TRI Pointe at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TRI Pointe or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TRI Pointe, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TRI Pointe Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TRI Pointe's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TRI Pointe's historical news coverage. TRI Pointe's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.12 and 37.64, respectively. We have considered TRI Pointe's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TRI Pointe is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TRI Pointe Homes is based on 3 months time horizon.
TRI Pointe Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TRI Pointe is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TRI Pointe backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TRI Pointe, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 2.24 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
35.40 | 35.38 | 0.08 |
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TRI Pointe Hype Timeline
On the 5th of February TRI Pointe Homes is traded for 35.40. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. TRI is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 35.38 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on TRI Pointe is about 7000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 35.39. The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.49 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 457.97 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 861.31 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TRI Pointe to cross-verify your projections.TRI Pointe Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TRI Pointe's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TRI Pointe's future price movements. Getting to know how TRI Pointe's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TRI Pointe may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GRBK | Green Brick Partners | (1.47) | 8 per month | 1.35 | 0.1 | 4.56 | (2.35) | 10.63 | |
| MHO | MI Homes | (3.99) | 7 per month | 1.48 | 0.07 | 4.51 | (2.13) | 10.17 | |
| CCS | Century Communities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.84 | 0.09 | 6.80 | (3.24) | 15.56 | |
| DFH | Dream Finders Homes | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.06 | 0.01 | 6.55 | (3.24) | 14.94 | |
| PRKS | United Parks Resorts | 0.75 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 4.75 | (4.99) | 24.45 | |
| YETI | YETI Holdings | 2.11 | 10 per month | 1.57 | 0.19 | 4.49 | (3.04) | 12.03 | |
| COLM | Columbia Sportswear | 1.04 | 12 per month | 1.95 | 0.11 | 4.23 | (3.25) | 10.24 | |
| VC | Visteon Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.30 | (2.78) | 8.62 | |
| SKY | Skyline | 0.49 | 9 per month | 1.96 | 0.1 | 4.86 | (3.89) | 17.78 | |
| LCII | LCI Industries | 0.75 | 9 per month | 0.38 | 0.30 | 3.99 | (1.80) | 11.30 |
Other Forecasting Options for TRI Pointe
For every potential investor in TRI, whether a beginner or expert, TRI Pointe's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TRI Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TRI. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TRI Pointe's price trends.TRI Pointe Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TRI Pointe stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TRI Pointe could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TRI Pointe by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TRI Pointe Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TRI Pointe stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TRI Pointe shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TRI Pointe stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TRI Pointe Homes entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 23349.06 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.0556 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 35.54 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 35.49 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.12) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.05 |
TRI Pointe Risk Indicators
The analysis of TRI Pointe's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TRI Pointe's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tri stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.46 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Variance | 5.02 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.97 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TRI Pointe
The number of cover stories for TRI Pointe depends on current market conditions and TRI Pointe's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TRI Pointe is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TRI Pointe's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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TRI Pointe Short Properties
TRI Pointe's future price predictability will typically decrease when TRI Pointe's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of TRI Pointe Homes often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential TRI Pointe's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TRI Pointe's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 94.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 970 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TRI Pointe to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
Is there potential for Household Durables market expansion? Will TRI introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TRI Pointe. If investors know TRI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about TRI Pointe listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of TRI Pointe Homes is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of TRI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of TRI Pointe's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is TRI Pointe's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because TRI Pointe's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect TRI Pointe's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TRI Pointe's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TRI Pointe is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, TRI Pointe's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.