Triunfo Participaes Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

TPIS3 Stock  BRL 6.67  0.47  7.58%   
Triunfo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Triunfo Participaes' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Triunfo Participaes' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Triunfo Participaes and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Triunfo Participaes' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Triunfo Participaes e, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Triunfo Participaes hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Triunfo Participaes e from the perspective of Triunfo Participaes response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Triunfo Participaes e on the next trading day is expected to be 6.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.15.

Triunfo Participaes after-hype prediction price

    
  BRL 6.67  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triunfo Participaes to cross-verify your projections.

Triunfo Participaes Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Triunfo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Triunfo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Triunfo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Triunfo Participaes price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Triunfo Participaes Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 13th of February 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Triunfo Participaes e on the next trading day is expected to be 6.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Triunfo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Triunfo Participaes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Triunfo Participaes Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Triunfo Participaes  Triunfo Participaes Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Triunfo Participaes Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Triunfo Participaes' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Triunfo Participaes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.36 and 9.91, respectively. We have considered Triunfo Participaes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.67
6.13
Expected Value
9.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Triunfo Participaes stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Triunfo Participaes stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.2373
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2121
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0449
SAESum of the absolute errors13.1532
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Triunfo Participaes e historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Triunfo Participaes

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Triunfo Participaes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.906.6710.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.184.958.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Triunfo Participaes. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Triunfo Participaes' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Triunfo Participaes' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Triunfo Participaes.

Triunfo Participaes After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Triunfo Participaes at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Triunfo Participaes or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Triunfo Participaes, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Triunfo Participaes Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Triunfo Participaes' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Triunfo Participaes' historical news coverage. Triunfo Participaes' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.90 and 10.44, respectively. We have considered Triunfo Participaes' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
6.67
6.67
After-hype Price
10.44
Upside
Triunfo Participaes is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Triunfo Participaes is based on 3 months time horizon.

Triunfo Participaes Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Triunfo Participaes is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Triunfo Participaes backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Triunfo Participaes, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.13 
3.77
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Within a week
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
6.67
6.67
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Triunfo Participaes Hype Timeline

Triunfo Participaes is at this time traded for 6.67on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Triunfo is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 1.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Triunfo Participaes is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.67. About 62.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.21. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Triunfo Participaes last dividend was issued on the 2nd of May 2022. The entity had 4:1 split on the 28th of April 2023. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be within a week.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Triunfo Participaes to cross-verify your projections.

Triunfo Participaes Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Triunfo Participaes' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Triunfo Participaes' future price movements. Getting to know how Triunfo Participaes' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Triunfo Participaes may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AZEV4Azevedo Travassos SA 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.17) 9.09 (8.00) 25.17 
AZEV3Azevedo Travassos SA 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 10.34 (9.30) 33.79 
AERI3Aeris Indstria e 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.28) 1.88 (2.91) 11.14 
ETER3Eternit SA 0.00 0 per month 1.17 (0.03) 2.74 (2.17) 4.96 
EALT4Electro Ao Altona 0.00 0 per month 0.98  0.17  3.51 (2.17) 8.34 
RCSL3Recrusul SA 0.00 0 per month 7.72  0.09  14.69 (12.63) 58.22 
RCSL4Recrusul SA 0.00 0 per month 10.92  0.19  24.05 (17.41) 324.93 
EALT3Electro Ao Altona 0.00 0 per month 2.72  0.04  4.92 (5.99) 15.88 
INEP3Inepar SA Indstria 0.00 0 per month 3.90  0.03  6.38 (6.50) 43.82 

Other Forecasting Options for Triunfo Participaes

For every potential investor in Triunfo, whether a beginner or expert, Triunfo Participaes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Triunfo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Triunfo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Triunfo Participaes' price trends.

Triunfo Participaes Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Triunfo Participaes stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Triunfo Participaes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Triunfo Participaes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Triunfo Participaes Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Triunfo Participaes stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Triunfo Participaes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Triunfo Participaes stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Triunfo Participaes e entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Triunfo Participaes Risk Indicators

The analysis of Triunfo Participaes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Triunfo Participaes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting triunfo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Triunfo Participaes

The number of cover stories for Triunfo Participaes depends on current market conditions and Triunfo Participaes' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Triunfo Participaes is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Triunfo Participaes' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Triunfo Participaes Short Properties

Triunfo Participaes' future price predictability will typically decrease when Triunfo Participaes' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Triunfo Participaes e often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Triunfo Participaes' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Triunfo Participaes' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding173.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments81.6 M

Additional Tools for Triunfo Stock Analysis

When running Triunfo Participaes' price analysis, check to measure Triunfo Participaes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Triunfo Participaes is operating at the current time. Most of Triunfo Participaes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Triunfo Participaes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Triunfo Participaes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Triunfo Participaes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.