TrustCo Bank Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| TRST Stock | USD 42.29 0.22 0.52% |
TrustCo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of TrustCo Bank's share price is at 52. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling TrustCo Bank, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.27 | Wall Street Target Price 26 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.103 |
Using TrustCo Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TrustCo Bank Corp from the perspective of TrustCo Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards TrustCo Bank using TrustCo Bank's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards TrustCo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of TrustCo Bank's stock price.
TrustCo Bank Short Interest
An investor who is long TrustCo Bank may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about TrustCo Bank and may potentially protect profits, hedge TrustCo Bank with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 33.8545 | Short Percent 0.0275 | Short Ratio 4.65 | Shares Short Prior Month 465.3 K | 50 Day MA 37.844 |
TrustCo Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of TrustCo Bank Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 44.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.48.TrustCo Bank Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to TrustCo Bank's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in TrustCo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding TrustCo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around TrustCo Bank Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of TrustCo Bank's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about TrustCo Bank.
TrustCo Bank Implied Volatility | 0.92 |
TrustCo Bank's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of TrustCo Bank Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if TrustCo Bank's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that TrustCo Bank stock will not fluctuate a lot when TrustCo Bank's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of TrustCo Bank Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 44.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.48. TrustCo Bank after-hype prediction price | USD 42.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TrustCo Bank to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current TrustCo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that TrustCo Bank Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0575% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With TrustCo Bank trading at USD 42.29, that is roughly USD 0.0243 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating TrustCo Bank's daily price movement you should consider acquiring TrustCo Bank Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.92%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 TrustCo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast TrustCo Bank's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in TrustCo Bank's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for TrustCo Bank stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current TrustCo Bank's open interest, investors have to compare it to TrustCo Bank's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of TrustCo Bank is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in TrustCo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
TrustCo Bank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TrustCo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TrustCo using various technical indicators. When you analyze TrustCo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TrustCo Bank Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of TrustCo Bank Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 44.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.25, mean absolute percentage error of 2.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TrustCo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TrustCo Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TrustCo Bank Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TrustCo Bank | TrustCo Bank Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
TrustCo Bank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TrustCo Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TrustCo Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.52 and 46.07, respectively. We have considered TrustCo Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TrustCo Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TrustCo Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.842 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2537 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.03 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 76.4757 |
Predictive Modules for TrustCo Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TrustCo Bank Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TrustCo Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
TrustCo Bank After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TrustCo Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TrustCo Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TrustCo Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TrustCo Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TrustCo Bank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TrustCo Bank's historical news coverage. TrustCo Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.59 and 44.15, respectively. We have considered TrustCo Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TrustCo Bank is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TrustCo Bank Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
TrustCo Bank Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TrustCo Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TrustCo Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TrustCo Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 1.78 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
42.29 | 42.37 | 0.33 |
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TrustCo Bank Hype Timeline
TrustCo Bank Corp is at this time traded for 42.29. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. TrustCo is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 42.37. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.33%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on TrustCo Bank is about 967.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.33. About 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.13. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. TrustCo Bank Corp last dividend was issued on the 5th of September 2025. The entity had 1:5 split on the 28th of May 2021. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TrustCo Bank to cross-verify your projections.TrustCo Bank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TrustCo Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TrustCo Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how TrustCo Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TrustCo Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NBBK | NB Bancorp Common | 0.36 | 5 per month | 1.06 | 0.10 | 2.93 | (2.07) | 6.22 | |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 0.12 | 10 per month | 1.38 | 0.06 | 3.59 | (2.50) | 10.05 | |
| MCBS | MetroCity Bankshares | 0.48 | 3 per month | 1.42 | 0.01 | 2.87 | (2.71) | 9.78 | |
| HBNC | Horizon Bancorp | 0.07 | 9 per month | 1.36 | 0.05 | 3.87 | (2.12) | 11.94 | |
| CCBG | Capital City Bank | 0.58 | 10 per month | 1.29 | 0.06 | 3.09 | (2.90) | 8.54 | |
| CCNE | CNB Financial | (0.04) | 7 per month | 0.95 | 0.08 | 3.12 | (1.55) | 5.21 | |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares | (0.87) | 8 per month | 1.39 | 0.01 | 2.66 | (2.38) | 9.13 | |
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp | 0.08 | 6 per month | 1.78 | 0.01 | 2.88 | (2.34) | 14.35 | |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares | 0.74 | 9 per month | 1.08 | 0.11 | 2.88 | (1.66) | 10.57 | |
| MPB | Mid Penn Bancorp | 0.32 | 10 per month | 1.48 | 0.09 | 3.32 | (2.94) | 10.40 |
Other Forecasting Options for TrustCo Bank
For every potential investor in TrustCo, whether a beginner or expert, TrustCo Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TrustCo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TrustCo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TrustCo Bank's price trends.TrustCo Bank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TrustCo Bank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TrustCo Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TrustCo Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TrustCo Bank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TrustCo Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TrustCo Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TrustCo Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TrustCo Bank Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
TrustCo Bank Risk Indicators
The analysis of TrustCo Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TrustCo Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trustco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Variance | 3.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.14 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.37) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TrustCo Bank
The number of cover stories for TrustCo Bank depends on current market conditions and TrustCo Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TrustCo Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TrustCo Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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TrustCo Bank Short Properties
TrustCo Bank's future price predictability will typically decrease when TrustCo Bank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of TrustCo Bank Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential TrustCo Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TrustCo Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 18.3 M | |
| Dividends Paid | -27.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 361 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 1.52 |
Additional Tools for TrustCo Stock Analysis
When running TrustCo Bank's price analysis, check to measure TrustCo Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TrustCo Bank is operating at the current time. Most of TrustCo Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TrustCo Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TrustCo Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TrustCo Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.