Townsquare Media Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TSQ Stock | USD 5.72 0.12 2.14% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Townsquare Media on the next trading day is expected to be 6.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.91. Townsquare Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Townsquare Media's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Townsquare Media's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Townsquare Media fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength momentum indicator of Townsquare Media's share price is at 51. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Townsquare Media, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.767 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.08 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.34 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.69 | Wall Street Target Price 13.5 |
Using Townsquare Media hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Townsquare Media from the perspective of Townsquare Media response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Townsquare Media using Townsquare Media's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Townsquare using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Townsquare Media's stock price.
Townsquare Media Short Interest
An investor who is long Townsquare Media may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Townsquare Media and may potentially protect profits, hedge Townsquare Media with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 6.5515 | Short Percent 0.0077 | Short Ratio 1.5 | Shares Short Prior Month 102 K | 50 Day MA 5.1924 |
Townsquare Media Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Townsquare Media's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Townsquare. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Townsquare can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Townsquare Media. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Townsquare Media Implied Volatility | 1.35 |
Townsquare Media's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Townsquare Media stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Townsquare Media's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Townsquare Media stock will not fluctuate a lot when Townsquare Media's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Townsquare Media on the next trading day is expected to be 6.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.91. Townsquare Media after-hype prediction price | USD 5.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Townsquare | Build AI portfolio with Townsquare Stock |
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Townsquare Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Townsquare Media's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Townsquare Media's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Townsquare Media stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Townsquare Media's open interest, investors have to compare it to Townsquare Media's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Townsquare Media is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Townsquare. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Townsquare Media Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Townsquare price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Townsquare using various technical indicators. When you analyze Townsquare charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Townsquare Media Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Townsquare Media's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2000-12-31 | Previous Quarter 3.2 M | Current Value 3.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 28.1 M |
Townsquare Media Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Townsquare Media on the next trading day is expected to be 6.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Townsquare Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Townsquare Media's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Townsquare Media Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Townsquare Media | Townsquare Media Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Townsquare Media Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Townsquare Media's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Townsquare Media's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.03 and 9.41, respectively. We have considered Townsquare Media's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Townsquare Media stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Townsquare Media stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9238 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1625 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0308 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.9103 |
Predictive Modules for Townsquare Media
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Townsquare Media. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Townsquare Media's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Townsquare Media After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Townsquare Media at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Townsquare Media or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Townsquare Media, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Townsquare Media Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Townsquare Media's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Townsquare Media's historical news coverage. Townsquare Media's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.52 and 8.92, respectively. We have considered Townsquare Media's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Townsquare Media is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Townsquare Media is based on 3 months time horizon.
Townsquare Media Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Townsquare Media is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Townsquare Media backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Townsquare Media, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 3.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.72 | 5.72 | 0.00 |
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Townsquare Media Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Townsquare Media is traded for 5.72. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Townsquare is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Townsquare Media is about 24538.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.72. About 20.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.96. Townsquare Media last dividend was issued on the 26th of January 2026. The entity had 1:4 split on the 9th of October 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 14 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Townsquare Media to cross-verify your projections.Townsquare Media Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Townsquare Media's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Townsquare Media's future price movements. Getting to know how Townsquare Media's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Townsquare Media may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CDLX | Cardlytics | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 10.71 | (9.43) | 36.22 | |
| XNET | Xunlei Ltd Adr | (0.02) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.32 | (5.27) | 15.16 | |
| TZOO | Travelzoo | 0.00 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 3.95 | (3.62) | 20.06 | |
| MCHX | Marchex | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.60 | (3.51) | 13.32 | |
| ILLR | Triller Group | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 16.67 | (40.32) | 109.86 | |
| IZEA | IZEA Inc | 0.01 | 17 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.11 | (4.35) | 13.32 | |
| FNGR | FingerMotion | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 9.86 | (6.82) | 28.83 | |
| SEAT | Vivid Seats | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 6.86 | (10.82) | 24.24 | |
| WIMI | WiMi Hologram Cloud | (0.02) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.15 | (5.94) | 18.66 | |
| FLNT | Fluent Inc | (0.06) | 8 per month | 3.27 | 0.14 | 10.98 | (5.51) | 26.93 |
Other Forecasting Options for Townsquare Media
For every potential investor in Townsquare, whether a beginner or expert, Townsquare Media's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Townsquare Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Townsquare. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Townsquare Media's price trends.Townsquare Media Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Townsquare Media stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Townsquare Media could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Townsquare Media by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Townsquare Media Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Townsquare Media stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Townsquare Media shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Townsquare Media stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Townsquare Media entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Townsquare Media Risk Indicators
The analysis of Townsquare Media's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Townsquare Media's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting townsquare stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.2 | |||
| Variance | 10.26 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Townsquare Media
The number of cover stories for Townsquare Media depends on current market conditions and Townsquare Media's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Townsquare Media is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Townsquare Media's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Townsquare Media Short Properties
Townsquare Media's future price predictability will typically decrease when Townsquare Media's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Townsquare Media often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Townsquare Media's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Townsquare Media's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 33 M |
Additional Tools for Townsquare Stock Analysis
When running Townsquare Media's price analysis, check to measure Townsquare Media's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Townsquare Media is operating at the current time. Most of Townsquare Media's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Townsquare Media's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Townsquare Media's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Townsquare Media to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.