Trade Desk Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TTD Stock | USD 36.55 0.27 0.73% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Trade Desk on the next trading day is expected to be 35.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.45. Trade Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Trade Desk stock prices and determine the direction of Trade Desk's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Trade Desk's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength indicator of Trade Desk's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.211 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5774 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.7747 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.0871 | Wall Street Target Price 58.2941 |
Using Trade Desk hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Trade Desk from the perspective of Trade Desk response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Trade Desk using Trade Desk's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Trade using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Trade Desk's stock price.
Trade Desk Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Trade Desk's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Trade. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Trade Desk stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 55.9559 | Short Percent 0.1004 | Short Ratio 3.24 | Shares Short Prior Month 53.7 M | 50 Day MA 38.956 |
Trade Desk Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Trade Desk's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Trade. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Trade can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Trade Desk. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Trade Desk Implied Volatility | 0.65 |
Trade Desk's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Trade Desk stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Trade Desk's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Trade Desk stock will not fluctuate a lot when Trade Desk's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Trade Desk on the next trading day is expected to be 35.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.45. Trade Desk after-hype prediction price | USD 35.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trade Desk to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Trade contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Trade Desk will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0406% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Trade Desk trading at USD 36.55, that is roughly USD 0.0148 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Trade Desk's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Trade Desk options at the current volatility level of 0.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Trade Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Trade Desk's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Trade Desk's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Trade Desk stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Trade Desk's open interest, investors have to compare it to Trade Desk's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Trade Desk is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Trade. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Trade Desk Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Trade price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Trade using various technical indicators. When you analyze Trade charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Trade Desk Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Trade Desk's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2014-12-31 | Previous Quarter 896.4 M | Current Value 653.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 411.7 M |
Trade Desk Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Trade Desk on the next trading day is expected to be 35.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.81, mean absolute percentage error of 0.99, and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Trade Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Trade Desk's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Trade Desk Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Trade Desk | Trade Desk Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Trade Desk Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Trade Desk's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Trade Desk's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.65 and 37.41, respectively. We have considered Trade Desk's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Trade Desk stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Trade Desk stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1028 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8106 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0204 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 49.4463 |
Predictive Modules for Trade Desk
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Trade Desk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Trade Desk's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Trade Desk After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Trade Desk at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Trade Desk or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Trade Desk, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Trade Desk Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Trade Desk's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Trade Desk's historical news coverage. Trade Desk's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.42 and 38.18, respectively. We have considered Trade Desk's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Trade Desk is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Trade Desk is based on 3 months time horizon.
Trade Desk Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Trade Desk is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Trade Desk backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Trade Desk, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.60 | 2.38 | 0.01 | 0.81 | 7 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
36.55 | 35.80 | 2.77 |
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Trade Desk Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Trade Desk is traded for 36.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.81. Trade is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 35.8. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -2.77%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.6%. The volatility of related hype on Trade Desk is about 177.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.36. About 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.07. Trade Desk had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 10:1 split on the 17th of June 2021. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trade Desk to cross-verify your projections.Trade Desk Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Trade Desk's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Trade Desk's future price movements. Getting to know how Trade Desk's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Trade Desk may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PTC | PTC Inc | 3.00 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 1.77 | (2.79) | 9.93 | |
| FIG | Figma Inc | 0.11 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.36) | 3.95 | (6.42) | 14.53 | |
| GRAB | Grab Holdings | (0.20) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 4.62 | (4.32) | 12.33 | |
| TYL | Tyler Technologies | 1.18 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.54 | (2.62) | 8.05 | |
| ZM | Zoom Video Communications | (0.62) | 11 per month | 1.75 | 0 | 3.43 | (3.14) | 13.95 | |
| SSNC | SSC Technologies Holdings | 0.47 | 11 per month | 1.09 | 0.02 | 1.85 | (1.91) | 7.41 | |
| MSTR | MicroStrategy Incorporated | 0.45 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 5.78 | (7.55) | 15.68 | |
| VRSN | VeriSign | 5.37 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.99 | (2.77) | 6.25 | |
| FLEX | Flex | 0.30 | 8 per month | 2.61 | (0) | 5.23 | (4.13) | 12.35 | |
| JBL | Jabil Circuit | 3.38 | 10 per month | 2.56 | 0.06 | 4.27 | (5.03) | 12.48 |
Other Forecasting Options for Trade Desk
For every potential investor in Trade, whether a beginner or expert, Trade Desk's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Trade Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Trade. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Trade Desk's price trends.Trade Desk Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Trade Desk stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Trade Desk could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Trade Desk by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Trade Desk Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Trade Desk stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Trade Desk shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Trade Desk stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Trade Desk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 107412.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.42) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 36.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 36.44 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.035 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.27) |
Trade Desk Risk Indicators
The analysis of Trade Desk's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Trade Desk's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trade stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Variance | 6.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Trade Desk
The number of cover stories for Trade Desk depends on current market conditions and Trade Desk's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Trade Desk is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Trade Desk's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Trade Desk Short Properties
Trade Desk's future price predictability will typically decrease when Trade Desk's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Trade Desk often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Trade Desk's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Trade Desk's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 501.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.9 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Trade Desk to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Trade Stock refer to our How to Trade Trade Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Trade Desk. If investors know Trade will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Trade Desk listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.211 | Earnings Share 0.88 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.177 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Trade Desk is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Trade that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Trade Desk's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Trade Desk's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Trade Desk's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Trade Desk's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Trade Desk's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Trade Desk is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Trade Desk's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.