TXNM Energy Stock Forward View
| TXNM Stock | USD 58.74 0.18 0.31% |
TXNM Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although TXNM Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of TXNM Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of TXNM Energy fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of TXNM Energy's stock price is about 61. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling TXNM, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6123 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.6027 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.9494 | Wall Street Target Price 60.7917 |
Using TXNM Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of TXNM Energy from the perspective of TXNM Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards TXNM Energy using TXNM Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards TXNM using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of TXNM Energy's stock price.
TXNM Energy Short Interest
An investor who is long TXNM Energy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about TXNM Energy and may potentially protect profits, hedge TXNM Energy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 56.836 | Short Percent 0.0645 | Short Ratio 7.75 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.5 M | 50 Day MA 58.7274 |
TXNM Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of TXNM Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 58.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.93.TXNM Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to TXNM Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in TXNM. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding TXNM can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around TXNM Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of TXNM Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about TXNM Energy.
TXNM Energy Implied Volatility | 0.47 |
TXNM Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of TXNM Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if TXNM Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that TXNM Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when TXNM Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of TXNM Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 58.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.93. TXNM Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 58.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TXNM Energy to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current TXNM contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that TXNM Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0294% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With TXNM Energy trading at USD 58.74, that is roughly USD 0.0173 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating TXNM Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring TXNM Energy options at the current volatility level of 0.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 TXNM Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast TXNM Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in TXNM Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for TXNM Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current TXNM Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to TXNM Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of TXNM Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in TXNM. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
TXNM Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine TXNM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for TXNM using various technical indicators. When you analyze TXNM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
TXNM Energy Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the TXNM Energy's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 4 M | Current Value 3.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 10.8 M |
TXNM Energy Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of TXNM Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 58.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TXNM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TXNM Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
TXNM Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest TXNM Energy | TXNM Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
TXNM Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting TXNM Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TXNM Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 58.66 and 59.17, respectively. We have considered TXNM Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TXNM Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TXNM Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.1445 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1136 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.002 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.9292 |
Predictive Modules for TXNM Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TXNM Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.TXNM Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of TXNM Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in TXNM Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of TXNM Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
TXNM Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting TXNM Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on TXNM Energy's historical news coverage. TXNM Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 58.48 and 58.98, respectively. We have considered TXNM Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
TXNM Energy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of TXNM Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
TXNM Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as TXNM Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading TXNM Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with TXNM Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 0.25 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
58.74 | 58.73 | 0.02 |
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TXNM Energy Hype Timeline
TXNM Energy is at this time traded for 58.74. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. TXNM is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 58.73. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 100.0%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on TXNM Energy is about 214.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 58.75. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.89. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. TXNM Energy has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.94. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. The firm had 3:2 split on the 14th of June 2004. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TXNM Energy to cross-verify your projections.TXNM Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to TXNM Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict TXNM Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how TXNM Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how TXNM Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PCG | PGE Corp | (0.14) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.79 | (2.31) | 6.66 | |
| CMS | CMS Energy | 0.76 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.27 | (1.56) | 5.00 | |
| ENIC | Enel Chile SA | (0.08) | 9 per month | 1.51 | 0.10 | 2.37 | (2.00) | 7.53 | |
| SWX | Southwest Gas Holdings | 0.08 | 8 per month | 1.14 | (0.01) | 1.96 | (1.68) | 5.91 | |
| IDA | IDACORP | (0.44) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.42 | (1.60) | 4.65 | |
| POR | Portland General Electric | 0.52 | 8 per month | 0.73 | 0.1 | 2.20 | (1.23) | 5.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for TXNM Energy
For every potential investor in TXNM, whether a beginner or expert, TXNM Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TXNM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TXNM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TXNM Energy's price trends.TXNM Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with TXNM Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of TXNM Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing TXNM Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
TXNM Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TXNM Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TXNM Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TXNM Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TXNM Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 58.74 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 58.74 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.09) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.18) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 61.72 |
TXNM Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of TXNM Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TXNM Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting txnm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1811 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2458 | |||
| Variance | 0.0604 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0419 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.03) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for TXNM Energy
The number of cover stories for TXNM Energy depends on current market conditions and TXNM Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that TXNM Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about TXNM Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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TXNM Energy Short Properties
TXNM Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when TXNM Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of TXNM Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential TXNM Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. TXNM Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 90.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of TXNM Energy to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in TXNM Stock, please use our How to Invest in TXNM Energy guide.You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Will Electric Utilities sector continue expanding? Could TXNM diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of TXNM Energy. If investors know TXNM will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every TXNM Energy data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | Dividend Share 1.63 | Earnings Share 1.79 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.137 |
Understanding TXNM Energy requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects TXNM's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what TXNM Energy's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push TXNM Energy's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between TXNM Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if TXNM Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, TXNM Energy's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.