Under Armour Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| UAA Stock | USD 6.31 0.01 0.16% |
Under Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Under Armour stock prices and determine the direction of Under Armour A's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Under Armour's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Under Armour's stock price is about 69. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Under, making its price go up or down. Momentum 69
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.99) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0464 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.049 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.2139 | Wall Street Target Price 6.1895 |
Using Under Armour hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Under Armour A from the perspective of Under Armour response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Under Armour using Under Armour's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Under using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Under Armour's stock price.
Under Armour Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Under Armour's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Under. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Under Armour stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 5.5661 | Short Percent 0.4122 | Short Ratio 5.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 58.3 M | 50 Day MA 4.8982 |
Under Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Under Armour A on the next trading day is expected to be 5.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.32.Under Armour A Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Under Armour's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Under. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Under can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Under Armour A. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Under Armour's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Under Armour.
Under Armour Implied Volatility | 0.89 |
Under Armour's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Under Armour A stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Under Armour's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Under Armour stock will not fluctuate a lot when Under Armour's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Under Armour A on the next trading day is expected to be 5.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.32. Under Armour after-hype prediction price | USD 6.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Under Armour to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Under contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Under Armour A will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0556% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Under Armour trading at USD 6.31, that is roughly USD 0.00351 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Under Armour's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Under Armour A options at the current volatility level of 0.89%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Under Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Under Armour's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Under Armour's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Under Armour stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Under Armour's open interest, investors have to compare it to Under Armour's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Under Armour is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Under. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Under Armour Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Under price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Under using various technical indicators. When you analyze Under charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Under Armour Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Under Armour A on the next trading day is expected to be 5.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.32.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Under Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Under Armour's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Under Armour Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Under Armour | Under Armour Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Under Armour Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Under Armour's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Under Armour's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.94 and 8.61, respectively. We have considered Under Armour's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Under Armour stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Under Armour stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2785 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3496 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0723 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.3245 |
Predictive Modules for Under Armour
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Under Armour A. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Under Armour After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Under Armour at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Under Armour or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Under Armour, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Under Armour Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Under Armour's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Under Armour's historical news coverage. Under Armour's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.49 and 9.15, respectively. We have considered Under Armour's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Under Armour is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Under Armour A is based on 3 months time horizon.
Under Armour Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Under Armour is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Under Armour backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Under Armour, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.56 | 2.83 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.31 | 6.32 | 0.00 |
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Under Armour Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Under Armour A is traded for 6.31. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. Under is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.56%. %. The volatility of related hype on Under Armour is about 1443.88%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.42. About 100.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.44. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Under Armour A has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.23. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.21. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Under Armour had 2:1 split on the 8th of April 2016. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Under Armour to cross-verify your projections.Under Armour Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Under Armour's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Under Armour's future price movements. Getting to know how Under Armour's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Under Armour may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HBI | Hanesbrands | 0.29 | 18 per month | 1.49 | (0.02) | 2.38 | (2.35) | 7.22 | |
| AIN | Albany International | (1.62) | 42 per month | 2.75 | (0.02) | 3.96 | (3.73) | 16.02 | |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide | 0.14 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.02 | (6.28) | 27.04 | |
| PHIN | PHINIA Inc | 1.64 | 9 per month | 1.12 | 0.19 | 3.13 | (2.48) | 6.35 | |
| ZGN | Ermenegildo Zegna NV | 0.08 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.79 | (3.06) | 17.11 | |
| GT | Goodyear Tire Rubber | (0.05) | 9 per month | 1.38 | 0.15 | 6.02 | (2.47) | 11.63 | |
| MCW | Mister Car Wash | 0.04 | 9 per month | 1.96 | 0.01 | 4.13 | (3.00) | 13.47 | |
| ADNT | Adient PLC | 0.32 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.13 | (5.12) | 21.07 | |
| KSS | Kohls | 0.06 | 11 per month | 3.23 | 0.03 | 5.38 | (5.71) | 49.53 | |
| SAH | Sonic Automotive | 1.06 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.83 | (3.19) | 16.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Under Armour
For every potential investor in Under, whether a beginner or expert, Under Armour's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Under Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Under. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Under Armour's price trends.Under Armour Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Under Armour stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Under Armour could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Under Armour by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Under Armour Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Under Armour stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Under Armour shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Under Armour stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Under Armour A entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.31 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.31 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 69.82 |
Under Armour Risk Indicators
The analysis of Under Armour's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Under Armour's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting under stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.76 | |||
| Variance | 7.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.32 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.29 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Under Armour
The number of cover stories for Under Armour depends on current market conditions and Under Armour's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Under Armour is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Under Armour's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Under Armour Short Properties
Under Armour's future price predictability will typically decrease when Under Armour's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Under Armour A often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Under Armour's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Under Armour's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 432.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 501.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Under Armour to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Is Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Under Armour. If investors know Under will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Under Armour listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.99) | Earnings Share (0.21) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Under Armour A is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Under that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Under Armour's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Under Armour's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Under Armour's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Under Armour's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Under Armour's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Under Armour is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Under Armour's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.