UBS Group Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| UBS Stock | USD 42.29 1.58 3.60% |
UBS Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of UBS Group's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.585 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.8006 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.1903 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.67 | Wall Street Target Price 49.315 |
Using UBS Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of UBS Group AG from the perspective of UBS Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards UBS Group using UBS Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards UBS using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of UBS Group's stock price.
UBS Group Short Interest
An investor who is long UBS Group may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about UBS Group and may potentially protect profits, hedge UBS Group with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 38.8136 | Short Percent 0.0037 | Short Ratio 5.32 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.6 M | 50 Day MA 45.162 |
UBS Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of UBS Group AG on the next trading day is expected to be 49.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 124.02.UBS Group AG Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to UBS Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in UBS. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding UBS can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around UBS Group AG. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of UBS Group's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about UBS Group.
UBS Group Implied Volatility | 0.38 |
UBS Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of UBS Group AG stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if UBS Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that UBS Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when UBS Group's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of UBS Group AG on the next trading day is expected to be 49.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 124.02. UBS Group after-hype prediction price | USD 42.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UBS Group to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current UBS contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that UBS Group AG will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0238% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With UBS Group trading at USD 42.29, that is roughly USD 0.01 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating UBS Group's daily price movement you should consider acquiring UBS Group AG options at the current volatility level of 0.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 UBS Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast UBS Group's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in UBS Group's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for UBS Group stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current UBS Group's open interest, investors have to compare it to UBS Group's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of UBS Group is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in UBS. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
UBS Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine UBS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UBS using various technical indicators. When you analyze UBS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
UBS Group Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 12th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of UBS Group AG on the next trading day is expected to be 49.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.03, mean absolute percentage error of 6.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 124.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UBS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UBS Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
UBS Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest UBS Group | UBS Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
UBS Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting UBS Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UBS Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.49 and 51.11, respectively. We have considered UBS Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UBS Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UBS Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.9131 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0331 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0467 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 124.0173 |
Predictive Modules for UBS Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UBS Group AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.UBS Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of UBS Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in UBS Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of UBS Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
UBS Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting UBS Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on UBS Group's historical news coverage. UBS Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.55 and 44.07, respectively. We have considered UBS Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
UBS Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of UBS Group AG is based on 3 months time horizon.
UBS Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as UBS Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading UBS Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with UBS Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.81 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
42.29 | 42.31 | 0.05 |
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UBS Group Hype Timeline
On the 11th of February 2026 UBS Group AG is traded for 42.29. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. UBS is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 42.31 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on UBS Group is about 39216.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.29. The company reported the last year's revenue of 52.03 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 7.77 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 49.05 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UBS Group to cross-verify your projections.UBS Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to UBS Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict UBS Group's future price movements. Getting to know how UBS Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how UBS Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| C | Citigroup | (0.40) | 7 per month | 1.46 | 0.12 | 3.43 | (2.21) | 8.93 | |
| BCS | Barclays PLC ADR | 0.22 | 8 per month | 1.51 | 0.14 | 2.94 | (2.49) | 7.10 | |
| HSBC | HSBC Holdings PLC | 1.54 | 8 per month | 0.93 | 0.20 | 2.26 | (2.22) | 7.49 | |
| NU | Nu Holdings | (1.06) | 7 per month | 2.22 | 0.03 | 3.85 | (3.65) | 11.48 | |
| ING | ING Group NV | (0.36) | 6 per month | 1.22 | 0.16 | 2.67 | (2.00) | 6.93 | |
| NWG | Natwest Group PLC | 0.06 | 10 per month | 2.24 | 0.02 | 2.61 | (2.94) | 10.90 | |
| SAN | Banco Santander SA | (0.01) | 10 per month | 1.66 | 0.15 | 2.90 | (2.37) | 9.51 | |
| RY | Royal Bank of | (0.83) | 6 per month | 0.40 | 0.23 | 1.68 | (1.34) | 4.03 | |
| BBVA | Banco Bilbao Viscaya | (0.24) | 10 per month | 2.14 | 0.12 | 2.94 | (2.00) | 12.95 | |
| BAC | Bank of America | 0.25 | 6 per month | 1.34 | 0 | 1.73 | (2.16) | 5.64 | |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | (0.59) | 7 per month | 1.40 | 0.01 | 2.23 | (2.09) | 8.11 | |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase Co | 0.64 | 8 per month | 1.66 | (0.03) | 2.34 | (3.11) | 7.38 | |
| TD | Toronto Dominion Bank | 0.84 | 7 per month | 0.49 | 0.23 | 1.85 | (1.52) | 5.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for UBS Group
For every potential investor in UBS, whether a beginner or expert, UBS Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UBS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UBS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UBS Group's price trends.UBS Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with UBS Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of UBS Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing UBS Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
UBS Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UBS Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UBS Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UBS Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify UBS Group AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 42.29 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 42.29 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.79) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.58) |
UBS Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of UBS Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UBS Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ubs stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.66 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Variance | 2.91 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.47 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.76 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.23) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for UBS Group
The number of cover stories for UBS Group depends on current market conditions and UBS Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that UBS Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about UBS Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for UBS Stock Analysis
When running UBS Group's price analysis, check to measure UBS Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UBS Group is operating at the current time. Most of UBS Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UBS Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UBS Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UBS Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.