United Community Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| UCB Stock | 34.43 0.27 0.78% |
United Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast United Community stock prices and determine the direction of United Community Banks's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of United Community's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of United Community's stock price is about 61. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling United, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.148 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.6871 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.9786 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.2171 | Wall Street Target Price 37.1667 |
Using United Community hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of United Community Banks from the perspective of United Community response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards United Community using United Community's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards United using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of United Community's stock price.
United Community Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in United Community's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards United. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of United Community stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 30.5997 | Short Percent 0.0317 | Short Ratio 3.67 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.7 M | 50 Day MA 32.0672 |
United Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of United Community Banks on the next trading day is expected to be 34.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.76.United Community Banks Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to United Community's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in United. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding United can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around United Community Banks. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of United Community's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about United Community.
United Community Implied Volatility | 0.8 |
United Community's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of United Community Banks stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if United Community's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that United Community stock will not fluctuate a lot when United Community's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of United Community Banks on the next trading day is expected to be 34.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.76. United Community after-hype prediction price | USD 34.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Community to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current United contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that United Community Banks will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.05% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With United Community trading at USD 34.43, that is roughly USD 0.0172 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating United Community's daily price movement you should consider acquiring United Community Banks options at the current volatility level of 0.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 United Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast United Community's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in United Community's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for United Community stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current United Community's open interest, investors have to compare it to United Community's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of United Community is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in United. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
United Community Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine United price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for United using various technical indicators. When you analyze United charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
United Community Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of United Community Banks on the next trading day is expected to be 34.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.76.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United Community's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
United Community Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest United Community | United Community Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
United Community Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting United Community's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. United Community's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.95 and 35.91, respectively. We have considered United Community's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United Community stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United Community stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.6236 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0872 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3403 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0107 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.76 |
Predictive Modules for United Community
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Community Banks. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of United Community's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
United Community After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of United Community at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in United Community or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of United Community, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
United Community Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting United Community's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on United Community's historical news coverage. United Community's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.13 and 36.09, respectively. We have considered United Community's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
United Community is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of United Community Banks is based on 3 months time horizon.
United Community Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as United Community is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading United Community backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with United Community, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 1.48 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
34.43 | 34.61 | 0.52 |
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United Community Hype Timeline
On the 31st of January United Community Banks is traded for 34.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.18, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.18. United is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 34.61 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.52%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on United Community is about 234.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34.61. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.54 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 250.92 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.01 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Community to cross-verify your projections.United Community Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to United Community's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict United Community's future price movements. Getting to know how United Community's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how United Community may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CADE | Cadence Bancorp | 1.42 | 8 per month | 1.43 | 0.12 | 3.62 | (2.23) | 10.35 | |
| INTR | Inter Co Class | (0.11) | 6 per month | 3.08 | 0.03 | 4.73 | (3.98) | 14.58 | |
| FULT | Fulton Financial | 0.08 | 11 per month | 1.25 | 0.10 | 3.01 | (1.95) | 8.73 | |
| MTB | MT Bank | 6.30 | 9 per month | 0.74 | 0.18 | 2.65 | (1.25) | 5.19 | |
| TBBK | The Bancorp | 0.49 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.18 | (3.73) | 19.50 | |
| WBS | Webster Financial | (0.61) | 8 per month | 1.08 | 0.13 | 2.80 | (1.77) | 7.21 | |
| BANF | BancFirst | (0.01) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.78 | (1.86) | 11.50 | |
| RNST | Renasant | (0.34) | 9 per month | 1.21 | 0.06 | 2.86 | (2.14) | 7.57 | |
| SNV | Synovus Financial Corp | (1.28) | 2 per month | 1.99 | (0) | 2.93 | (2.49) | 9.63 | |
| ASB | Associated Banc Corp | 0.38 | 8 per month | 1.24 | 0.04 | 3.31 | (1.59) | 8.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for United Community
For every potential investor in United, whether a beginner or expert, United Community's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. United Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in United. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying United Community's price trends.United Community Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with United Community stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of United Community could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United Community by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
United Community Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how United Community stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading United Community shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying United Community stock market strength indicators, traders can identify United Community Banks entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
United Community Risk Indicators
The analysis of United Community's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in United Community's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting united stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.09 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.76 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for United Community
The number of cover stories for United Community depends on current market conditions and United Community's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that United Community is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about United Community's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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United Community Short Properties
United Community's future price predictability will typically decrease when United Community's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of United Community Banks often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential United Community's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. United Community's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 121.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Community to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of United Community. If investors know United will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive United Community assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.148 | Dividend Share 0.98 | Earnings Share 2.62 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.105 |
Understanding United Community Banks requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects United's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what United Community's is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push United Community's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Community's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Community is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, United Community's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.