UMB Financial Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| UMB Stock | EUR 103.00 3.00 2.83% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of UMB Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 103.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.61. UMB Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of UMB Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 25th of January 2026 the value of rsi of UMB Financial's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using UMB Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of UMB Financial from the perspective of UMB Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of UMB Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 103.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.61. UMB Financial after-hype prediction price | EUR 103.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
UMB |
UMB Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine UMB price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UMB using various technical indicators. When you analyze UMB charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
UMB Financial Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of UMB Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 103.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.45, mean absolute percentage error of 3.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UMB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UMB Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
UMB Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest UMB Financial | UMB Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
UMB Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting UMB Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UMB Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 101.41 and 105.06, respectively. We have considered UMB Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UMB Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UMB Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.318 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4527 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0149 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 88.6119 |
Predictive Modules for UMB Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UMB Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.UMB Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of UMB Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in UMB Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of UMB Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
UMB Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting UMB Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on UMB Financial's historical news coverage. UMB Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 101.17 and 104.83, respectively. We have considered UMB Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
UMB Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of UMB Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
UMB Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as UMB Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading UMB Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with UMB Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
103.00 | 103.00 | 0.00 |
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UMB Financial Hype Timeline
UMB Financial is at this time traded for 103.00on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. UMB is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on UMB Financial is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 103.00. About 91.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.61. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. UMB Financial recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.37. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of March 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UMB Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in UMB Stock please use our How to Invest in UMB Financial guide.UMB Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to UMB Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict UMB Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how UMB Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how UMB Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 1HTA | Hyatt Hotels | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.51 | 0.07 | 4.19 | (2.76) | 11.71 | |
| KSX | Knight Swift Transportation Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.86 | 0.14 | 3.73 | (3.27) | 9.06 | |
| CDZ0 | MHP Hotel AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.48 | (0.02) | 3.68 | (5.16) | 15.75 | |
| 9TG | Gaztransport Technigaz SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.34 | 0.09 | 2.92 | (2.68) | 15.58 | |
| IC1H | InterContinental Hotels Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.05 | 0.07 | 2.68 | (1.87) | 7.28 | |
| FUY | Fukuyama Transporting Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.17 | 0.09 | 2.42 | (1.87) | 7.98 | |
| 1HTA | HYATT HOTELS A | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.51 | 0.05 | 3.23 | (3.19) | 12.35 | |
| DSG | DICKS Sporting Goods | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.75 | (4.35) | 13.53 |
Other Forecasting Options for UMB Financial
For every potential investor in UMB, whether a beginner or expert, UMB Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UMB Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UMB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UMB Financial's price trends.UMB Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with UMB Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of UMB Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing UMB Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
UMB Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UMB Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UMB Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UMB Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify UMB Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
UMB Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of UMB Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UMB Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting umb stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.41 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.05 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.81 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for UMB Financial
The number of cover stories for UMB Financial depends on current market conditions and UMB Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that UMB Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about UMB Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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UMB Financial Short Properties
UMB Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when UMB Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of UMB Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential UMB Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UMB Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.3 M | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 1.4 | |
| Shares Float | 45.1 M |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in UMB Stock
When determining whether UMB Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze UMB Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact UMB Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding UMB Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UMB Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in UMB Stock please use our How to Invest in UMB Financial guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.