Ur Energy Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

URE Stock  CAD 2.58  0.11  4.09%   
URE Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Ur Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ur Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ur Energy fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Ur Energy's share price is at 58. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ur Energy, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 58

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Ur Energy's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ur Energy, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ur Energy's stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.02)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.19)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(0.06)
Wall Street Target Price
2.8907
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.02)
Using Ur Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ur Energy from the perspective of Ur Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ur Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 2.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.97.

Ur Energy after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 2.58  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ur Energy to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in URE Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ur Energy guide.

Ur Energy Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine URE price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for URE using various technical indicators. When you analyze URE charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Ur Energy - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Ur Energy prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Ur Energy price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Ur Energy.

Ur Energy Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ur Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 2.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.97.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict URE Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ur Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ur Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

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Ur Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ur Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ur Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 6.59, respectively. We have considered Ur Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.58
2.57
Expected Value
6.59
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ur Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ur Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0109
MADMean absolute deviation0.0662
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0333
SAESum of the absolute errors3.9718
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Ur Energy observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Ur Energy observations.

Predictive Modules for Ur Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ur Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.132.586.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.101.996.04
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.05-0.04-0.04
Details

Ur Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ur Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ur Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ur Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Ur Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ur Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ur Energy's historical news coverage. Ur Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.13 and 6.63, respectively. We have considered Ur Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
2.58
2.58
After-hype Price
6.63
Upside
Ur Energy is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ur Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ur Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ur Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ur Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ur Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.29 
4.02
  0.02 
  0.01 
10 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
2.58
2.58
0.00 
5,743  
Notes

Ur Energy Hype Timeline

Ur Energy is at this time traded for 2.58on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. URE is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.29%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ur Energy is about 21157.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.59. About 82.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.37. Ur Energy recorded a loss per share of 0.3. The entity last dividend was issued on the September 21, 2010. The firm had 2:1 split on the 17th of July 2017. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ur Energy to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in URE Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ur Energy guide.

Ur Energy Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ur Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ur Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Ur Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ur Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
EUenCore Energy Corp(0.08)9 per month 4.76  0.06  8.95 (7.53) 35.43 
URCUranium Royalty Corp(0.22)8 per month 3.78  0.06  7.03 (6.76) 32.36 
TNZTenaz Energy Corp 0.22 8 per month 1.84  0.18  4.75 (3.43) 17.96 
VLEValeura Energy 0.01 2 per month 1.72  0.23  5.06 (2.54) 13.92 
PSIPason Systems 0.04 2 per month 1.32  0  2.31 (2.25) 6.37 
SNMShaMaran Petroleum Corp 0.02 4 per month 0.00 (0.05) 4.55 (4.35) 16.33 
SGYSurge Energy 0.04 5 per month 1.94  0.07  3.53 (3.23) 9.35 
TCWTrican Well Service 0.1 7 per month 2.46  0.12  3.20 (4.74) 10.95 
MGAMega Uranium 0.01 4 per month 4.05  0.16  10.53 (7.32) 30.26 
MATRMattr Corp 0.05 7 per month 0.00 (0.16) 2.19 (3.49) 22.94 

Other Forecasting Options for Ur Energy

For every potential investor in URE, whether a beginner or expert, Ur Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. URE Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in URE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ur Energy's price trends.

Ur Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ur Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ur Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ur Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ur Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ur Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ur Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ur Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ur Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ur Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ur Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ur Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ure stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Ur Energy

The number of cover stories for Ur Energy depends on current market conditions and Ur Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ur Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ur Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Ur Energy Short Properties

Ur Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ur Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ur Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ur Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ur Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding317.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments76.1 M
When determining whether Ur Energy is a strong investment it is important to analyze Ur Energy's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Ur Energy's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding URE Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ur Energy to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in URE Stock, please use our How to Invest in Ur Energy guide.
You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ur Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ur Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Ur Energy's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.