UWM Holdings Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| UWMC Stock | USD 5.03 0.05 0.98% |
UWM Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast UWM Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of UWM Holdings Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of UWM Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength indicator of UWM Holdings' share price is approaching 47. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling UWM Holdings, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.667 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.08 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.1541 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.4556 | Wall Street Target Price 6.5938 |
Using UWM Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of UWM Holdings Corp from the perspective of UWM Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards UWM Holdings using UWM Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards UWM using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of UWM Holdings' stock price.
UWM Holdings Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in UWM Holdings' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards UWM. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of UWM Holdings stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 5.0491 | Short Percent 0.1567 | Short Ratio 2.4 | Shares Short Prior Month 24.6 M | 50 Day MA 5.2664 |
UWM Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of UWM Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.91.UWM Holdings Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to UWM Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in UWM. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding UWM can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around UWM Holdings Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of UWM Holdings' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about UWM Holdings.
UWM Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.78 |
UWM Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of UWM Holdings Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if UWM Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that UWM Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when UWM Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of UWM Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.91.
UWM Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 5.06 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UWM Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current UWM contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that UWM Holdings Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0488% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With UWM Holdings trading at USD 5.03, that is roughly USD 0.002452 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating UWM Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring UWM Holdings Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.78%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 UWM Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast UWM Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in UWM Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for UWM Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current UWM Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to UWM Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of UWM Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in UWM. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
UWM Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine UWM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UWM using various technical indicators. When you analyze UWM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
UWM Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of UWM Holdings Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 5.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UWM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UWM Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
UWM Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest UWM Holdings | UWM Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
UWM Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting UWM Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UWM Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.17 and 8.88, respectively. We have considered UWM Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UWM Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UWM Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.0604 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -6.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1318 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0254 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.905 |
Predictive Modules for UWM Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UWM Holdings Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.UWM Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of UWM Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in UWM Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of UWM Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
UWM Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting UWM Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on UWM Holdings' historical news coverage. UWM Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.20 and 8.92, respectively. We have considered UWM Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
UWM Holdings is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of UWM Holdings Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
UWM Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as UWM Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading UWM Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with UWM Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 3.86 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 11 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.03 | 5.06 | 0.60 |
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UWM Holdings Hype Timeline
UWM Holdings Corp is at this time traded for 5.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. UWM is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 5.06 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.6%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on UWM Holdings is about 1429.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.00. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.91 B. Net Income was 329.38 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.7 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UWM Holdings to cross-verify your projections.UWM Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to UWM Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict UWM Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how UWM Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how UWM Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FRHC | Freedom Holding Corp | (0.30) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.26 | (4.04) | 8.46 | |
| CIFR | Cipher Mining | (0.51) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 12.10 | (10.41) | 36.13 | |
| MORN | Morningstar | 1.00 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.00 | (2.95) | 6.90 | |
| ONB | Old National Bancorp | (0.10) | 9 per month | 1.03 | 0.20 | 2.93 | (1.59) | 7.78 | |
| SSB | SouthState | 1.24 | 6 per month | 0.74 | 0.17 | 2.93 | (1.27) | 5.16 | |
| KNSL | Kinsale Capital Group | (2.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.94 | (3.33) | 8.82 | |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial | 0.35 | 9 per month | 1.05 | 0.17 | 3.42 | (1.57) | 8.80 | |
| CFG | Citizens Financial Group | (0.52) | 7 per month | 0.80 | 0.23 | 2.99 | (1.80) | 9.61 | |
| WAL | Western Alliance Bancorporation | (1.55) | 7 per month | 1.55 | 0.13 | 3.88 | (2.94) | 10.08 |
Other Forecasting Options for UWM Holdings
For every potential investor in UWM, whether a beginner or expert, UWM Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UWM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UWM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UWM Holdings' price trends.UWM Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with UWM Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of UWM Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing UWM Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
UWM Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UWM Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UWM Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UWM Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify UWM Holdings Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.03 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.03 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.05) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.39 |
UWM Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of UWM Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UWM Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting uwm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.92 | |||
| Variance | 15.4 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for UWM Holdings
The number of cover stories for UWM Holdings depends on current market conditions and UWM Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that UWM Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about UWM Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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UWM Holdings Short Properties
UWM Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when UWM Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of UWM Holdings Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential UWM Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UWM Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 111.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 507.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UWM Holdings to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Will Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance sector continue expanding? Could UWM diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UWM Holdings. If investors know UWM will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every UWM Holdings data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.667 | Dividend Share 0.4 | Earnings Share 0.11 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.10) |
UWM Holdings Corp's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on UWM's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate UWM Holdings' intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since UWM Holdings' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UWM Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UWM Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UWM Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.