Vale SA Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VALEN Stock | MXN 205.00 3.50 1.74% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vale SA on the next trading day is expected to be 193.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 279.96. Vale Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Vale |
Vale SA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vale SA on the next trading day is expected to be 193.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.59, mean absolute percentage error of 32.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 279.96.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vale Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vale SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vale SA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vale SA | Vale SA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Vale SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vale SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vale SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 191.68 and 196.18, respectively. We have considered Vale SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vale SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vale SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.5826 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.5894 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0215 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 279.9562 |
Predictive Modules for Vale SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vale SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Vale SA
For every potential investor in Vale, whether a beginner or expert, Vale SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vale Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vale. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vale SA's price trends.Vale SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vale SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vale SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vale SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vale SA Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vale SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vale SA's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vale SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vale SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vale SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vale SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vale SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Vale SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vale SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vale SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vale stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Variance | 5.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.45 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.72 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Vale Stock
Vale SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vale Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vale with respect to the benefits of owning Vale SA security.