Vir Biotechnology Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| VIR Stock | USD 7.19 0.27 3.90% |
Vir Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Vir Biotechnology's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Vir Biotechnology's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Vir Biotechnology fundamentals over time.
As of today the rsi of Vir Biotechnology's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.585 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.71) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.32) | EPS Estimate Next Year (2.89) | Wall Street Target Price 16.3333 |
Using Vir Biotechnology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vir Biotechnology from the perspective of Vir Biotechnology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Vir Biotechnology using Vir Biotechnology's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Vir using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Vir Biotechnology's stock price.
Vir Biotechnology Implied Volatility | 2.08 |
Vir Biotechnology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vir Biotechnology stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vir Biotechnology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vir Biotechnology stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vir Biotechnology's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Vir Biotechnology on the next trading day is expected to be 7.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.70. Vir Biotechnology after-hype prediction price | USD 7.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vir Biotechnology to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Vir contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Vir Biotechnology will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.13% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Vir Biotechnology trading at USD 7.19, that is roughly USD 0.009347 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Vir Biotechnology's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Vir Biotechnology options at the current volatility level of 2.08%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Vir Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Vir Biotechnology's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Vir Biotechnology's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Vir Biotechnology stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Vir Biotechnology's open interest, investors have to compare it to Vir Biotechnology's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Vir Biotechnology is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Vir. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Vir Biotechnology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vir price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vir using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vir charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vir Biotechnology Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 9th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Vir Biotechnology on the next trading day is expected to be 7.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vir Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vir Biotechnology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vir Biotechnology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vir Biotechnology | Vir Biotechnology Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Vir Biotechnology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vir Biotechnology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vir Biotechnology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.70 and 11.68, respectively. We have considered Vir Biotechnology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vir Biotechnology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vir Biotechnology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.2029 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0376 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2322 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.036 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.7 |
Predictive Modules for Vir Biotechnology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vir Biotechnology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vir Biotechnology After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vir Biotechnology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vir Biotechnology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vir Biotechnology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vir Biotechnology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vir Biotechnology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vir Biotechnology's historical news coverage. Vir Biotechnology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.93 and 11.91, respectively. We have considered Vir Biotechnology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vir Biotechnology is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vir Biotechnology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vir Biotechnology Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vir Biotechnology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vir Biotechnology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vir Biotechnology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.57 | 4.49 | 0.23 | 0.03 | 5 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.19 | 7.42 | 3.20 |
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Vir Biotechnology Hype Timeline
On the 8th of February Vir Biotechnology is traded for 7.19. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Vir is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 7.42 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 3.2%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.57%. The volatility of related hype on Vir Biotechnology is about 7877.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.22. Vir Biotechnology has 97.89 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.07, which may show that the company is not taking advantage of profits from borrowing. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vir Biotechnology to cross-verify your projections.Vir Biotechnology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vir Biotechnology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vir Biotechnology's future price movements. Getting to know how Vir Biotechnology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vir Biotechnology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MRVI | Maravai Lifesciences Holdings | (0.20) | 7 per month | 3.54 | 0.02 | 8.38 | (6.35) | 22.00 | |
| IOVA | Iovance Biotherapeutics | 0.12 | 7 per month | 4.13 | 0.08 | 11.81 | (7.58) | 37.34 | |
| REPL | Replimune Group | 0.14 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.56 | (5.32) | 14.00 | |
| PRME | Prime Medicine Common | (0.09) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 11.05 | (8.38) | 25.37 | |
| DNA | Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings | (0.08) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 8.31 | (6.79) | 20.80 | |
| GERN | Geron | 0.08 | 9 per month | 2.72 | 0.09 | 7.76 | (4.29) | 16.99 | |
| LENZ | LENZ Therapeutics | 0.98 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 8.05 | (10.16) | 40.02 | |
| YDES | YD Bio | 0.62 | 7 per month | 5.96 | 0.02 | 10.86 | (10.28) | 39.47 | |
| DAWN | Day One Biopharmaceuticals | (0.29) | 9 per month | 3.67 | 0.12 | 13.81 | (6.53) | 39.62 | |
| KURA | Kura Oncology | (0.71) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.01 | (5.77) | 22.83 |
Other Forecasting Options for Vir Biotechnology
For every potential investor in Vir, whether a beginner or expert, Vir Biotechnology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vir Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vir. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vir Biotechnology's price trends.Vir Biotechnology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vir Biotechnology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vir Biotechnology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vir Biotechnology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vir Biotechnology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vir Biotechnology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vir Biotechnology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vir Biotechnology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vir Biotechnology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Vir Biotechnology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vir Biotechnology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vir Biotechnology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vir stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.46 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.52 | |||
| Variance | 20.45 | |||
| Downside Variance | 15.46 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.4 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.92) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Vir Biotechnology
The number of cover stories for Vir Biotechnology depends on current market conditions and Vir Biotechnology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vir Biotechnology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vir Biotechnology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Vir Biotechnology Short Properties
Vir Biotechnology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Vir Biotechnology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vir Biotechnology often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vir Biotechnology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vir Biotechnology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 136.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 905.3 M |
Additional Tools for Vir Stock Analysis
When running Vir Biotechnology's price analysis, check to measure Vir Biotechnology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vir Biotechnology is operating at the current time. Most of Vir Biotechnology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vir Biotechnology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vir Biotechnology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vir Biotechnology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.