Valens Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VLN Stock | USD 1.84 0.12 6.12% |
Valens Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Valens' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Valens' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Valens fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Valens' share price is at 51. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Valens, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.04) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.16) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.15) | Wall Street Target Price 3.75 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.07) |
Using Valens hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Valens from the perspective of Valens response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Valens using Valens' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Valens using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Valens' stock price.
Valens Short Interest
An investor who is long Valens may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Valens and may potentially protect profits, hedge Valens with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 2.0614 | Short Percent 0.0075 | Short Ratio 0.72 | Shares Short Prior Month 553.2 K | 50 Day MA 1.6726 |
Valens Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valens on the next trading day is expected to be 1.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.23.Valens Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Valens' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Valens. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Valens can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Valens. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Valens' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Valens.
Valens Implied Volatility | 2.44 |
Valens' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Valens stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Valens' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Valens stock will not fluctuate a lot when Valens' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valens on the next trading day is expected to be 1.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.23. Valens after-hype prediction price | USD 1.84 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valens to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Valens Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Valens' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Valens' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Valens stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Valens' open interest, investors have to compare it to Valens' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Valens is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Valens. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Valens Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Valens price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Valens using various technical indicators. When you analyze Valens charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Valens Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Valens' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2020-03-31 | Previous Quarter 46.6 M | Current Value 31.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 38.4 M |
Valens Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valens on the next trading day is expected to be 1.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.23.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Valens Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Valens' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Valens Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Valens | Valens Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Valens Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Valens' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Valens' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 10.51, respectively. We have considered Valens' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valens stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valens stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.363 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1185 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0693 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.2268 |
Predictive Modules for Valens
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valens. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Valens After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Valens at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Valens or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Valens, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Valens Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Valens' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Valens' historical news coverage. Valens' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.09 and 10.61, respectively. We have considered Valens' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Valens is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Valens is based on 3 months time horizon.
Valens Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Valens is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Valens backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Valens, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.44 | 8.85 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 1 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.84 | 1.84 | 0.00 |
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Valens Hype Timeline
On the 28th of January Valens is traded for 1.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Valens is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.44%. %. The volatility of related hype on Valens is about 36875.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.85. About 39.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.73. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Valens recorded a loss per share of 0.29. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be very soon. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valens to cross-verify your projections.Valens Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Valens' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Valens' future price movements. Getting to know how Valens' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Valens may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AXTI | AXT Inc | (0.02) | 13 per month | 5.43 | 0.28 | 16.99 | (9.58) | 35.11 | |
| SQNS | Sequans Communications SA | (0.34) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 6.80 | (7.10) | 22.42 | |
| ATOM | Atomera | (0.05) | 1 per month | 3.97 | 0.05 | 9.55 | (7.04) | 21.72 | |
| DMRC | Digimarc | 0.07 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 6.01 | (7.96) | 25.20 | |
| TCX | Tucows Inc | (0.13) | 9 per month | 2.27 | 0.11 | 5.31 | (4.30) | 13.11 | |
| GSIT | GSI Technology | 1.00 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 9.15 | (11.40) | 48.36 | |
| SVCO | Silvaco Group Common | 0.20 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.80 | (9.11) | 16.69 | |
| LTRX | Lantronix | (0.23) | 9 per month | 3.09 | 0.16 | 6.50 | (5.59) | 21.11 | |
| AISP | Airship AI Holdings | (0.13) | 24 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 8.08 | (8.70) | 29.30 | |
| DUOT | Duos Technologies Group | (0.13) | 17 per month | 3.92 | 0.09 | 7.81 | (6.94) | 23.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for Valens
For every potential investor in Valens, whether a beginner or expert, Valens' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Valens Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Valens. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Valens' price trends.Valens Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Valens stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Valens could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Valens by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Valens Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Valens stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Valens shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Valens stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Valens entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Valens Risk Indicators
The analysis of Valens' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valens' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting valens stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.99 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.45 | |||
| Variance | 71.41 | |||
| Downside Variance | 22.24 | |||
| Semi Variance | 18.71 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.73) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Valens
The number of cover stories for Valens depends on current market conditions and Valens' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Valens is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Valens' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Valens Short Properties
Valens' future price predictability will typically decrease when Valens' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Valens often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Valens' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valens' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 105.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 131 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valens to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Valens Stock, please use our How to Invest in Valens guide.You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Is Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Valens. If investors know Valens will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Valens listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.29) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.081 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Valens is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Valens that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Valens' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Valens' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Valens' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Valens' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Valens' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Valens is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Valens' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.