Vanda Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VNDA Stock | USD 5.09 0.15 3.04% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vanda Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 4.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.53. Vanda Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Vanda Pharmaceuticals stock prices and determine the direction of Vanda Pharmaceuticals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Vanda Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Vanda |
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Vanda Pharmaceuticals' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2004-12-31 | Previous Quarter 103 M | Current Value 100.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 53.9 M |
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vanda Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 4.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vanda Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vanda Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vanda Pharmaceuticals | Vanda Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Vanda Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vanda Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.27 and 7.49, respectively. We have considered Vanda Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vanda Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vanda Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.3156 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1234 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0254 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.5302 |
Predictive Modules for Vanda Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanda Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanda Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Vanda Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Vanda, whether a beginner or expert, Vanda Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vanda Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vanda. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vanda Pharmaceuticals' price trends.View Vanda Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Vanda Pharmaceuticals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Vanda Pharmaceuticals' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vanda Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vanda Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vanda Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vanda Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Vanda Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vanda Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vanda stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.61 | |||
| Variance | 6.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Vanda Pharmaceuticals offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Vanda Pharmaceuticals' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Vanda Pharmaceuticals Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Vanda Pharmaceuticals Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vanda Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Vanda Stock refer to our How to Trade Vanda Stock guide.You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vanda Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Vanda will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vanda Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | Earnings Share (0.19) | Revenue Per Share 3.293 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.228 | Return On Assets (0.04) |
The market value of Vanda Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vanda that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vanda Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vanda Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vanda Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vanda Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vanda Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vanda Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vanda Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.