Verra Mobility Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| VRRM Stock | USD 21.90 0.10 0.45% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Verra Mobility Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 21.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.33. Verra Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Verra Mobility's share price is approaching 42. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Verra Mobility, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Verra Mobility hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Verra Mobility Corp from the perspective of Verra Mobility response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Verra Mobility Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 21.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.33. Verra Mobility after-hype prediction price | USD 21.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Verra Mobility to cross-verify your projections. Verra Mobility Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Verra price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Verra using various technical indicators. When you analyze Verra charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Verra Mobility Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Verra Mobility Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 21.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.24, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Verra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Verra Mobility's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Verra Mobility Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Verra Mobility | Verra Mobility Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Verra Mobility Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Verra Mobility's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Verra Mobility's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.55 and 23.25, respectively. We have considered Verra Mobility's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Verra Mobility stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Verra Mobility stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.8786 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0342 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2388 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0108 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.33 |
Predictive Modules for Verra Mobility
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Verra Mobility Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Verra Mobility After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Verra Mobility at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Verra Mobility or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Verra Mobility, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Verra Mobility Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Verra Mobility's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Verra Mobility's historical news coverage. Verra Mobility's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.55 and 23.25, respectively. We have considered Verra Mobility's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Verra Mobility is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Verra Mobility Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Verra Mobility Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Verra Mobility is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Verra Mobility backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Verra Mobility, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.35 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
21.90 | 21.90 | 0.00 |
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Verra Mobility Hype Timeline
Verra Mobility Corp is at this time traded for 21.90. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.04. Verra is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Verra Mobility is about 517.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 21.94. About 99.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.55. Verra Mobility Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Verra Mobility to cross-verify your projections.Verra Mobility Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Verra Mobility's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Verra Mobility's future price movements. Getting to know how Verra Mobility's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Verra Mobility may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PAY | Paymentus Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.65 | (5.50) | 36.06 | |
| NIQ | NIQ Global Intelligence | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.97 | 0.15 | 4.93 | (3.20) | 10.33 | |
| SAIC | Science Applications International | (0.26) | 7 per month | 1.23 | 0.07 | 3.42 | (1.85) | 20.14 | |
| PSFE | Paysafe | 0.33 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 4.29 | (5.16) | 31.29 | |
| BL | Blackline | (0.02) | 9 per month | 1.98 | 0.01 | 3.08 | (3.41) | 10.66 | |
| AVT | Avnet Inc | 1.28 | 9 per month | 1.35 | (0.06) | 2.62 | (1.89) | 6.78 | |
| COMM | COMM Old | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.65 | 0.11 | 4.23 | (5.40) | 15.17 | |
| DAVE | Dave Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 5.29 | (8.15) | 19.16 | |
| DOCN | DigitalOcean Holdings | 1.28 | 10 per month | 2.56 | 0.10 | 6.72 | (4.19) | 24.58 | |
| IPGP | IPG Photonics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.54 | (0.03) | 3.62 | (4.00) | 12.41 |
Other Forecasting Options for Verra Mobility
For every potential investor in Verra, whether a beginner or expert, Verra Mobility's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Verra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Verra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Verra Mobility's price trends.Verra Mobility Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Verra Mobility stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Verra Mobility could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Verra Mobility by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Verra Mobility Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Verra Mobility stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Verra Mobility shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Verra Mobility stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Verra Mobility Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 17118.05 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.20) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 22.08 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 22.02 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.23) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.39 |
Verra Mobility Risk Indicators
The analysis of Verra Mobility's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Verra Mobility's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting verra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Variance | 1.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Verra Mobility
The number of cover stories for Verra Mobility depends on current market conditions and Verra Mobility's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Verra Mobility is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Verra Mobility's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Verra Mobility Short Properties
Verra Mobility's future price predictability will typically decrease when Verra Mobility's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Verra Mobility Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Verra Mobility's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Verra Mobility's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 167.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 77.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Verra Mobility to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Verra Mobility. If investors know Verra will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Verra Mobility listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Verra Mobility Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Verra that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Verra Mobility's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Verra Mobility's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Verra Mobility's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Verra Mobility's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Verra Mobility's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Verra Mobility is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Verra Mobility's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.