Washington Federal Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| WAFD Stock | USD 32.94 0.33 1.01% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Washington Federal on the next trading day is expected to be 32.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.95. Washington Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Washington Federal stock prices and determine the direction of Washington Federal's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Washington Federal's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Washington Federal's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.466 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.7325 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.06 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.235 | Wall Street Target Price 33.375 |
Using Washington Federal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Washington Federal from the perspective of Washington Federal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Washington Federal using Washington Federal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Washington using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Washington Federal's stock price.
Washington Federal Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Washington Federal's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Washington. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Washington Federal stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 30.1744 | Short Percent 0.0385 | Short Ratio 3.67 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.4 M | 50 Day MA 32.2162 |
Washington Federal Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Washington Federal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Washington. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Washington can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Washington Federal. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Washington Federal Implied Volatility | 0.87 |
Washington Federal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Washington Federal stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Washington Federal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Washington Federal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Washington Federal's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Washington Federal on the next trading day is expected to be 32.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.95. Washington Federal after-hype prediction price | USD 33.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Washington | Build AI portfolio with Washington Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Washington contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Washington Federal will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0544% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Washington Federal trading at USD 32.94, that is roughly USD 0.0179 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Washington Federal's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Washington Federal options at the current volatility level of 0.87%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Washington Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Washington Federal's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Washington Federal's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Washington Federal stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Washington Federal's open interest, investors have to compare it to Washington Federal's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Washington Federal is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Washington. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Washington Federal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Washington price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Washington using various technical indicators. When you analyze Washington charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Washington Federal Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Washington Federal on the next trading day is expected to be 32.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Washington Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Washington Federal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Washington Federal Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Washington Federal | Washington Federal Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Washington Federal Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Washington Federal's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Washington Federal's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.34 and 34.46, respectively. We have considered Washington Federal's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Washington Federal stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Washington Federal stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.8506 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0795 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3825 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.9473 |
Predictive Modules for Washington Federal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Washington Federal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Washington Federal After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Washington Federal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Washington Federal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Washington Federal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Washington Federal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Washington Federal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Washington Federal's historical news coverage. Washington Federal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.54 and 34.68, respectively. We have considered Washington Federal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Washington Federal is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Washington Federal is based on 3 months time horizon.
Washington Federal Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Washington Federal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Washington Federal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Washington Federal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.56 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
32.94 | 33.11 | 0.52 |
|
Washington Federal Hype Timeline
Washington Federal is at this time traded for 32.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Washington is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 33.11 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 187.95%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.52%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Washington Federal is about 783.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 32.98. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.41 B. Net Income was 226.07 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 734.47 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Washington Federal to cross-verify your projections.Washington Federal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Washington Federal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Washington Federal's future price movements. Getting to know how Washington Federal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Washington Federal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TRMK | Trustmark | (0.02) | 11 per month | 1.07 | 0.07 | 2.46 | (1.88) | 6.76 | |
| PFS | Provident Financial Services | (0.14) | 11 per month | 0.97 | 0.10 | 2.57 | (1.69) | 6.72 | |
| FFBC | First Financial Bancorp | (0.28) | 11 per month | 0.76 | 0.10 | 3.20 | (1.31) | 6.15 | |
| WAL | Western Alliance Bancorporation | 2.14 | 9 per month | 1.44 | 0.14 | 4.04 | (2.94) | 9.54 | |
| PRK | Park National | (1.06) | 11 per month | 1.35 | 0.03 | 2.59 | (1.65) | 7.00 | |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp | (0.66) | 9 per month | 1.14 | 0.16 | 3.73 | (1.99) | 10.88 | |
| BANR | Banner | 2.12 | 9 per month | 1.07 | 0.02 | 2.94 | (1.65) | 6.29 | |
| TOWN | Towne Bank | (0.02) | 9 per month | 1.11 | 0.05 | 2.74 | (2.21) | 6.35 | |
| CVBF | CVB Financial | 0.30 | 8 per month | 1.17 | 0.06 | 3.01 | (1.98) | 6.60 | |
| NBTB | NBT Bancorp | (0.39) | 10 per month | 1.02 | 0.07 | 2.94 | (2.08) | 5.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for Washington Federal
For every potential investor in Washington, whether a beginner or expert, Washington Federal's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Washington Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Washington. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Washington Federal's price trends.Washington Federal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Washington Federal stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Washington Federal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Washington Federal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Washington Federal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Washington Federal stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Washington Federal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Washington Federal stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Washington Federal entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Washington Federal Risk Indicators
The analysis of Washington Federal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Washington Federal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting washington stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Variance | 2.52 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.34) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Washington Federal
The number of cover stories for Washington Federal depends on current market conditions and Washington Federal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Washington Federal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Washington Federal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Washington Federal Short Properties
Washington Federal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Washington Federal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Washington Federal often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Washington Federal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Washington Federal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 80.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Washington Federal to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Washington Stock refer to our How to Trade Washington Stock guide.You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Washington Federal. If investors know Washington will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Washington Federal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.466 | Dividend Share 0.8 | Earnings Share 2.88 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.098 |
The market value of Washington Federal is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Washington that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Washington Federal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Washington Federal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Washington Federal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Washington Federal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Washington Federal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Washington Federal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Washington Federal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.