Washington Trust Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| WASH Stock | USD 37.73 0.32 0.86% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Washington Trust Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 37.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.52. Washington Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Washington Trust's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Washington Trust Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Washington Trust Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 37.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74, mean absolute percentage error of 1.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Washington Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Washington Trust's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Washington Trust Stock Forecast Pattern
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Washington Trust Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Washington Trust's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Washington Trust's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.96 and 40.69, respectively. We have considered Washington Trust's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Washington Trust stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Washington Trust stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1674 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7376 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0214 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.5164 |
Predictive Modules for Washington Trust
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Washington Trust Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Washington Trust's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Washington Trust
For every potential investor in Washington, whether a beginner or expert, Washington Trust's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Washington Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Washington. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Washington Trust's price trends.Washington Trust Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Washington Trust stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Washington Trust could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Washington Trust by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Washington Trust Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Washington Trust's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Washington Trust's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Washington Trust Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Washington Trust stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Washington Trust shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Washington Trust stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Washington Trust Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Washington Trust Risk Indicators
The analysis of Washington Trust's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Washington Trust's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting washington stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.82 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Variance | 7.99 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.68 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.95) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether Washington Trust Bancorp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Washington Trust's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Washington Trust Bancorp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Washington Trust Bancorp Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Washington Trust to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Washington Trust. If investors know Washington will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Washington Trust listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Dividend Share 2.24 | Earnings Share 2.67 | Revenue Per Share 11.087 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) |
The market value of Washington Trust Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Washington that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Washington Trust's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Washington Trust's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Washington Trust's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Washington Trust's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Washington Trust's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Washington Trust is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Washington Trust's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.