Westgold Resources Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| WGX Stock | 7.46 0.16 2.19% |
Westgold Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Westgold Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Westgold Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Westgold Resources fundamentals over time.
The relative strength indicator of Westgold Resources' share price is above 70 as of today. This entails that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Westgold, making its price go up or down. Momentum 75
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 146.833 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.81 |
Using Westgold Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Westgold Resources Limited from the perspective of Westgold Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Westgold Resources Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 7.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.24. Westgold Resources after-hype prediction price | CAD 7.45 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Westgold |
Westgold Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Westgold price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Westgold using various technical indicators. When you analyze Westgold charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Westgold Resources Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Westgold Resources Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 7.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Westgold Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Westgold Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Westgold Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Westgold Resources | Westgold Resources Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Westgold Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Westgold Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Westgold Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.76 and 10.16, respectively. We have considered Westgold Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Westgold Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Westgold Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5848 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0447 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1207 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0212 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.24 |
Predictive Modules for Westgold Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Westgold Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Westgold Resources After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Westgold Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Westgold Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Westgold Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Westgold Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Westgold Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Westgold Resources' historical news coverage. Westgold Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.75 and 10.15, respectively. We have considered Westgold Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Westgold Resources is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Westgold Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.
Westgold Resources Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Westgold Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Westgold Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Westgold Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.77 | 2.70 | 0.01 | 0.19 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
7.46 | 7.45 | 2.05 |
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Westgold Resources Hype Timeline
Westgold Resources is at this time traded for 7.46on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.19. Westgold is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 7.45 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is estimated to be 2.05%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.77%. The volatility of related hype on Westgold Resources is about 1114.68%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.65. Westgold Resources Limited has accumulated 132.01 M in total debt. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Westgold Resources to cross-verify your projections.Westgold Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Westgold Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Westgold Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how Westgold Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Westgold Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OLA | Orla Mining | 0.61 | 7 per month | 2.87 | 0.20 | 7.54 | (5.64) | 24.74 | |
| NG | NovaGold Resources | 0.22 | 8 per month | 2.32 | 0.13 | 5.85 | (4.56) | 12.28 | |
| KNT | K92 Mining | (0.52) | 9 per month | 1.77 | 0.27 | 4.25 | (3.50) | 9.36 | |
| TXG | Torex Gold Resources | 0.56 | 10 per month | 2.04 | 0.15 | 5.24 | (4.28) | 12.26 | |
| DPM | Dundee Precious Metals | 0.19 | 14 per month | 1.02 | 0.34 | 4.44 | (2.24) | 8.93 | |
| NGEX | NGEx Minerals | 1.06 | 8 per month | 3.21 | 0.06 | 5.08 | (4.71) | 16.29 | |
| CG | Centerra Gold | 0.66 | 8 per month | 1.36 | 0.31 | 5.24 | (2.90) | 10.74 | |
| PRU | Perseus Mining | (0.04) | 7 per month | 1.64 | 0.21 | 4.01 | (2.91) | 9.69 | |
| SJ | Stella Jones | (0.56) | 17 per month | 1.11 | 0.08 | 2.30 | (1.94) | 7.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Westgold Resources
For every potential investor in Westgold, whether a beginner or expert, Westgold Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Westgold Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Westgold. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Westgold Resources' price trends.Westgold Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Westgold Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Westgold Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Westgold Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Westgold Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Westgold Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Westgold Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Westgold Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Westgold Resources Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Westgold Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Westgold Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Westgold Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting westgold stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Variance | 7.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.76 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Westgold Resources
The number of cover stories for Westgold Resources depends on current market conditions and Westgold Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Westgold Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Westgold Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Westgold Resources Short Properties
Westgold Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when Westgold Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Westgold Resources Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Westgold Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Westgold Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 912.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 215.4 M |
Other Information on Investing in Westgold Stock
Westgold Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Westgold Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Westgold with respect to the benefits of owning Westgold Resources security.