Willis Lease Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| WLFC Stock | USD 176.68 5.61 3.08% |
Willis Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Willis Lease stock prices and determine the direction of Willis Lease Finance's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Willis Lease's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Willis Lease's stock price is about 62. This entails that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Willis, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.23 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.82 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.71 | Wall Street Target Price 160 |
Using Willis Lease hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Willis Lease Finance from the perspective of Willis Lease response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Willis Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Willis Lease Finance on the next trading day is expected to be 176.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 214.15.Willis Lease Finance Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Willis Lease's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Willis. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Willis can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Willis Lease Finance. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Willis Lease's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Willis Lease.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Willis Lease Finance on the next trading day is expected to be 176.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 214.15. Willis Lease after-hype prediction price | USD 179.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Willis Lease to cross-verify your projections. Willis Lease Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Willis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Willis using various technical indicators. When you analyze Willis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Willis Lease Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Willis Lease Finance on the next trading day is expected to be 176.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.57, mean absolute percentage error of 19.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 214.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Willis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Willis Lease's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Willis Lease Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Willis Lease | Willis Lease Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Willis Lease Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Willis Lease's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Willis Lease's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 173.70 and 179.66, respectively. We have considered Willis Lease's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Willis Lease stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Willis Lease stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2409 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.8115 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.5692 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0249 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 214.15 |
Predictive Modules for Willis Lease
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Willis Lease Finance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Willis Lease After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Willis Lease at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Willis Lease or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Willis Lease, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Willis Lease Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Willis Lease's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Willis Lease's historical news coverage. Willis Lease's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 176.03 and 181.99, respectively. We have considered Willis Lease's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Willis Lease is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Willis Lease Finance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Willis Lease Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Willis Lease is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Willis Lease backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Willis Lease, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.57 | 2.98 | 2.33 | 0.05 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
176.68 | 179.01 | 1.32 |
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Willis Lease Hype Timeline
Willis Lease Finance is at this time traded for 176.68. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.33, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Willis is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 179.01 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 72.86%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.32%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.57%. The volatility of related hype on Willis Lease is about 3547.62%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 176.73. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 569.22 M. Net Income was 108.61 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 592.52 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Willis Lease to cross-verify your projections.Willis Lease Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Willis Lease's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Willis Lease's future price movements. Getting to know how Willis Lease's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Willis Lease may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HTZ | Hertz Global Holdings | (0.03) | 9 per month | 3.28 | 0.01 | 7.63 | (5.46) | 43.57 | |
| ALTG | Alta Equipment Group | 0.05 | 10 per month | 3.52 | (0) | 6.44 | (4.75) | 15.40 | |
| UP | Wheels Up Experience | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 11.94 | (13.58) | 61.04 | |
| PRG | PROG Holdings | (0.58) | 8 per month | 1.69 | 0.01 | 3.84 | (2.58) | 8.53 | |
| GLDD | Great Lakes Dredge | 0.21 | 9 per month | 1.47 | 0.17 | 4.74 | (3.10) | 16.08 | |
| ULCC | Frontier Group Holdings | 0.21 | 8 per month | 3.47 | 0.07 | 7.54 | (5.87) | 19.12 | |
| GSL | Global Ship Lease | 0.46 | 9 per month | 1.00 | 0.20 | 2.89 | (2.24) | 12.98 | |
| AEBI | Aebi Schmidt Holding | 0.25 | 4 per month | 2.06 | 0.08 | 4.24 | (2.86) | 9.69 | |
| VSTS | Vestis | 0.18 | 7 per month | 3.44 | 0.08 | 6.21 | (6.37) | 18.68 | |
| ERII | Energy Recovery | 0.06 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.15 | (2.98) | 21.23 |
Other Forecasting Options for Willis Lease
For every potential investor in Willis, whether a beginner or expert, Willis Lease's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Willis Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Willis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Willis Lease's price trends.Willis Lease Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Willis Lease stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Willis Lease could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Willis Lease by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Willis Lease Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Willis Lease stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Willis Lease shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Willis Lease stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Willis Lease Finance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 176.68 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 176.68 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.80) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (5.61) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 62.6 |
Willis Lease Risk Indicators
The analysis of Willis Lease's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Willis Lease's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting willis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.35 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.89 | |||
| Variance | 8.36 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.4 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.53) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Willis Lease
The number of cover stories for Willis Lease depends on current market conditions and Willis Lease's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Willis Lease is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Willis Lease's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Willis Lease Short Properties
Willis Lease's future price predictability will typically decrease when Willis Lease's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Willis Lease Finance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Willis Lease's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Willis Lease's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Willis Lease to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Will Trading Companies & Distributors sector continue expanding? Could Willis diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Willis Lease. Anticipated expansion of Willis directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Willis Lease data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.04) | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 16.66 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.261 |
Investors evaluate Willis Lease Finance using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Willis Lease's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Willis Lease's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Willis Lease's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Willis Lease is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Willis Lease's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.