Worthington Industries Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

WOR Stock  USD 53.29  0.28  0.53%   
Worthington Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the relative strength momentum indicator of Worthington Industries' share price is approaching 48. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Worthington Industries, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 48

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Worthington Industries' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Worthington Industries and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Worthington Industries' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Worthington Industries, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Worthington Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Worthington Industries from the perspective of Worthington Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Worthington Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 53.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.74.

Worthington Industries after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 53.29  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Worthington Industries to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Worthington Stock, please use our How to Invest in Worthington Industries guide.

Worthington Industries Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Worthington price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Worthington using various technical indicators. When you analyze Worthington charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Triple exponential smoothing for Worthington Industries - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Worthington Industries prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Worthington Industries price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Worthington Industries.

Worthington Industries Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Worthington Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 53.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.66, mean absolute percentage error of 0.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 38.74.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Worthington Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Worthington Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Worthington Industries Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Worthington Industries  Worthington Industries Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Worthington Industries Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Worthington Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Worthington Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.72 and 54.87, respectively. We have considered Worthington Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
53.29
53.29
Expected Value
54.87
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Worthington Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Worthington Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1339
MADMean absolute deviation0.6567
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0122
SAESum of the absolute errors38.7435
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Worthington Industries observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Worthington Industries observations.

Predictive Modules for Worthington Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Worthington Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
51.7153.2954.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
52.4053.9855.56
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
51.3752.9354.50
Details

Worthington Industries After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Worthington Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Worthington Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Worthington Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Worthington Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Worthington Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Worthington Industries' historical news coverage. Worthington Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.71 and 54.87, respectively. We have considered Worthington Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
53.29
53.29
After-hype Price
54.87
Upside
Worthington Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Worthington Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.

Worthington Industries Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Worthington Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Worthington Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Worthington Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.04 
1.58
 0.00  
  0.04 
0 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
Any time
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
53.29
53.29
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Worthington Industries Hype Timeline

On the 27th of January Worthington Industries is traded for 53.29. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.04. Worthington is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Worthington Industries is about 164.75%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 53.25. About 38.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The book value of Worthington Industries was at this time reported as 19.43. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.35. Worthington Industries last dividend was issued on the 13th of March 2026. The entity had 1622:1000 split on the 1st of December 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be any time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Worthington Industries to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Worthington Stock, please use our How to Invest in Worthington Industries guide.

Worthington Industries Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Worthington Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Worthington Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Worthington Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Worthington Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AZZAZZ Incorporated 1.75 8 per month 1.07  0.15  3.39 (2.35) 8.55 
AMSCAmerican Superconductor(4.29)7 per month 0.00 (0.11) 5.56 (6.95) 47.39 
POWWAmmo Inc 0.01 16 per month 2.95  0.03  5.59 (4.71) 14.96 
SXIStandex International 0.81 12 per month 2.05  0.01  3.49 (2.82) 12.69 
MGRCMcGrath RentCorp(3.66)6 per month 0.00 (0.09) 3.75 (2.02) 7.75 
ABMABM Industries Incorporated(0.20)16 per month 2.66 (0.02) 2.57 (3.92) 15.37 
HURNHuron Consulting Group 0.00 0 per month 1.44 (0.04) 2.31 (2.29) 8.35 
AMPXAmprius Technologies 0.28 13 per month 5.50  0.02  10.55 (7.88) 29.24 
CMPOCompoSecure 0.00 0 per month 2.44  0.12  7.86 (6.01) 15.13 
UNFUnifirst(4.29)14 per month 0.90  0.17  2.89 (1.97) 19.18 

Other Forecasting Options for Worthington Industries

For every potential investor in Worthington, whether a beginner or expert, Worthington Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Worthington Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Worthington. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Worthington Industries' price trends.

Worthington Industries Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Worthington Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Worthington Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Worthington Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Worthington Industries Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Worthington Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Worthington Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Worthington Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Worthington Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Worthington Industries Risk Indicators

The analysis of Worthington Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Worthington Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting worthington stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Worthington Industries

The number of cover stories for Worthington Industries depends on current market conditions and Worthington Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Worthington Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Worthington Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Worthington Industries Short Properties

Worthington Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Worthington Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Worthington Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Worthington Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Worthington Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding50.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments250.1 M

Additional Tools for Worthington Stock Analysis

When running Worthington Industries' price analysis, check to measure Worthington Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Worthington Industries is operating at the current time. Most of Worthington Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Worthington Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Worthington Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Worthington Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.