World Acceptance Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| WRLD Stock | USD 123.20 1.95 1.61% |
World Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast World Acceptance stock prices and determine the direction of World Acceptance's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of World Acceptance's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength indicator of World Acceptance's share price is approaching 42. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling World Acceptance, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.86) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 8.19 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.07 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.73 | Wall Street Target Price 120 |
Using World Acceptance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of World Acceptance from the perspective of World Acceptance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of World Acceptance on the next trading day is expected to be 123.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 201.16. World Acceptance after-hype prediction price | USD 122.83 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of World Acceptance to cross-verify your projections. World Acceptance Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine World price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for World using various technical indicators. When you analyze World charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
World Acceptance Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of World Acceptance on the next trading day is expected to be 123.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.35, mean absolute percentage error of 25.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 201.16.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict World Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that World Acceptance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
World Acceptance Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest World Acceptance | World Acceptance Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
World Acceptance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting World Acceptance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. World Acceptance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 119.68 and 126.72, respectively. We have considered World Acceptance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of World Acceptance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent World Acceptance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.4988 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1863 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.3527 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0244 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 201.16 |
Predictive Modules for World Acceptance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as World Acceptance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.World Acceptance After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of World Acceptance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in World Acceptance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of World Acceptance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
World Acceptance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting World Acceptance's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on World Acceptance's historical news coverage. World Acceptance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 119.31 and 126.35, respectively. We have considered World Acceptance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
World Acceptance is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of World Acceptance is based on 3 months time horizon.
World Acceptance Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as World Acceptance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading World Acceptance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with World Acceptance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 3.52 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
123.20 | 122.83 | 0.30 |
|
World Acceptance Hype Timeline
World Acceptance is at this time traded for 123.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.37, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. World is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 122.83. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 76.86%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.3%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.08%. The volatility of related hype on World Acceptance is about 8585.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 123.20. About 20.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 1.68. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. World Acceptance recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.75. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 3:1 split on the 1st of September 1995. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of World Acceptance to cross-verify your projections.World Acceptance Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to World Acceptance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict World Acceptance's future price movements. Getting to know how World Acceptance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how World Acceptance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LX | Lexinfintech Holdings | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.32 | (6.65) | 34.72 | |
| ATLC | Atlanticus Holdings | 1.40 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.64 | (5.57) | 14.61 | |
| QD | Qudian Inc | (0.08) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 4.50 | (6.58) | 17.86 | |
| TRST | TrustCo Bank Corp | (0.31) | 8 per month | 1.43 | 0.1 | 2.71 | (1.69) | 12.39 | |
| VEL | Velocity Financial Llc | (0.32) | 8 per month | 1.46 | 0.05 | 2.83 | (2.42) | 12.39 | |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.99 | 0.14 | 2.72 | (1.57) | 8.85 | |
| CCNE | CNB Financial | 1.22 | 7 per month | 0.94 | 0.12 | 3.12 | (1.55) | 8.97 | |
| HBNC | Horizon Bancorp | (0.96) | 8 per month | 1.34 | 0.08 | 2.98 | (1.77) | 11.15 | |
| HTB | HomeTrust Bancshares | (0.18) | 7 per month | 1.37 | 0.04 | 2.66 | (2.38) | 9.13 | |
| MBWM | Mercantile Bank | (0.27) | 10 per month | 1.16 | 0.14 | 3.78 | (2.55) | 9.88 |
Other Forecasting Options for World Acceptance
For every potential investor in World, whether a beginner or expert, World Acceptance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. World Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in World. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying World Acceptance's price trends.World Acceptance Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with World Acceptance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of World Acceptance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing World Acceptance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
World Acceptance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how World Acceptance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading World Acceptance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying World Acceptance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify World Acceptance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
World Acceptance Risk Indicators
The analysis of World Acceptance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in World Acceptance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting world stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.5 | |||
| Variance | 12.23 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for World Acceptance
The number of cover stories for World Acceptance depends on current market conditions and World Acceptance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that World Acceptance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about World Acceptance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
World Acceptance Short Properties
World Acceptance's future price predictability will typically decrease when World Acceptance's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of World Acceptance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential World Acceptance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. World Acceptance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of World Acceptance to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade World Stock refer to our How to Trade World Stock guide.You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Will Consumer Finance sector continue expanding? Could World diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of World Acceptance. Anticipated expansion of World directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every World Acceptance data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.86) | Earnings Share 7.75 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.019 | Return On Assets |
The market value of World Acceptance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of World that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of World Acceptance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is World Acceptance's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because World Acceptance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect World Acceptance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between World Acceptance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if World Acceptance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, World Acceptance's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.