Western Copper Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| WRN Stock | USD 3.69 0.12 3.36% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Western Copper and on the next trading day is expected to be 3.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.61. Western Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Western Copper's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Western Copper's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Western Copper fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength momentum indicator of Western Copper's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.01) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.02) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.03) | Wall Street Target Price 4.875 |
Using Western Copper hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Western Copper and from the perspective of Western Copper response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Western Copper and on the next trading day is expected to be 3.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.61. Western Copper after-hype prediction price | USD 3.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Western Copper to cross-verify your projections. Western Copper Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Western price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Western using various technical indicators. When you analyze Western charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Western Copper Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Western Copper and on the next trading day is expected to be 3.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.61.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Western Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Western Copper's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Western Copper Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Western Copper | Western Copper Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Western Copper Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Western Copper's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Western Copper's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 7.65, respectively. We have considered Western Copper's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Western Copper stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Western Copper stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.831 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0322 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0769 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0289 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.6143 |
Predictive Modules for Western Copper
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Western Copper. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Western Copper After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Western Copper at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Western Copper or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Western Copper, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Western Copper Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Western Copper's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Western Copper's historical news coverage. Western Copper's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.19 and 7.69, respectively. We have considered Western Copper's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Western Copper is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Western Copper is based on 3 months time horizon.
Western Copper Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Western Copper is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Western Copper backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Western Copper, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.04 | 3.96 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 7 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.69 | 3.71 | 0.54 |
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Western Copper Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Western Copper is traded for 3.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. Western is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.71 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is forecasted to be 0.54%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 1.04%. The volatility of related hype on Western Copper is about 2828.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.54. Reported Net Loss for the year was (6.92 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 0. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Western Copper to cross-verify your projections.Western Copper Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Western Copper's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Western Copper's future price movements. Getting to know how Western Copper's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Western Copper may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EMX | EMX Royalty Corp | (0.03) | 27 per month | 3.32 | 0.08 | 6.54 | (5.45) | 14.90 | |
| NMG | Nouveau Monde Graphite | (0.06) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.88 | (7.51) | 29.51 | |
| LZM | Lifezone Metals Limited | (0.04) | 8 per month | 3.58 | 0 | 7.99 | (6.08) | 16.60 | |
| ABAT | American Battery Technology | 0.05 | 14 per month | 7.06 | 0.03 | 11.73 | (9.87) | 56.10 | |
| NB | NioCorp Developments Ltd | (0.06) | 11 per month | 6.70 | (0.01) | 12.26 | (11.50) | 34.01 | |
| NEWP | New Pacific Metals | 0.01 | 9 per month | 4.33 | 0.16 | 11.08 | (7.24) | 24.59 | |
| IONR | ioneer Ltd American | (0.30) | 4 per month | 4.72 | 0.01 | 8.75 | (7.14) | 19.58 | |
| ZEUS | Olympic Steel | (0.71) | 8 per month | 1.45 | 0.25 | 4.56 | (3.58) | 28.75 | |
| HDSN | Hudson Technologies | (0.26) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.97 | (4.19) | 25.33 | |
| ADUR | Aduro Clean Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 12.11 | (6.79) | 24.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for Western Copper
For every potential investor in Western, whether a beginner or expert, Western Copper's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Western Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Western. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Western Copper's price trends.Western Copper Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Western Copper stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Western Copper could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Western Copper by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Western Copper Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Western Copper stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Western Copper shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Western Copper stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Western Copper and entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Western Copper Risk Indicators
The analysis of Western Copper's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Western Copper's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting western stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.78 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.33 | |||
| Variance | 18.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 18.28 | |||
| Semi Variance | 14.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Western Copper
The number of cover stories for Western Copper depends on current market conditions and Western Copper's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Western Copper is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Western Copper's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Western Copper Short Properties
Western Copper's future price predictability will typically decrease when Western Copper's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Western Copper and often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Western Copper's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Western Copper's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 187.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 69.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Western Copper to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Is Diversified Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Western Copper. If investors know Western will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Western Copper listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Western Copper is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Western that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Western Copper's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Western Copper's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Western Copper's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Western Copper's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Western Copper's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Western Copper is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Western Copper's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.