Xenon Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| XENE Stock | USD 41.76 0.48 1.14% |
Xenon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Xenon Pharmaceuticals stock prices and determine the direction of Xenon Pharmaceuticals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Xenon Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the RSI of Xenon Pharmaceuticals' share price is approaching 47. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Xenon Pharmaceuticals, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.23) | EPS Estimate Current Year (4.27) | EPS Estimate Next Year (4.60) | Wall Street Target Price 55.5074 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (1.16) |
Using Xenon Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Xenon Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of Xenon Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Xenon Pharmaceuticals using Xenon Pharmaceuticals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Xenon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Xenon Pharmaceuticals' stock price.
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Xenon Pharmaceuticals' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Xenon. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Xenon Pharmaceuticals stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 37.1737 | Short Percent 0.0855 | Short Ratio 7.68 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.7 M | 50 Day MA 42.6448 |
Xenon Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Xenon Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 41.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.03.Xenon Pharmaceuticals Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Xenon Pharmaceuticals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Xenon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Xenon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Xenon Pharmaceuticals. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Xenon Pharmaceuticals' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Xenon Pharmaceuticals.
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Implied Volatility | 1.22 |
Xenon Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Xenon Pharmaceuticals stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Xenon Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Xenon Pharmaceuticals stock will not fluctuate a lot when Xenon Pharmaceuticals' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Xenon Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 41.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.03. Xenon Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 41.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xenon Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Xenon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Xenon Pharmaceuticals will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0763% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Xenon Pharmaceuticals trading at USD 41.76, that is roughly USD 0.0318 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Xenon Pharmaceuticals' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Xenon Pharmaceuticals options at the current volatility level of 1.22%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Xenon Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Xenon Pharmaceuticals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Xenon Pharmaceuticals' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Xenon Pharmaceuticals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Xenon Pharmaceuticals' open interest, investors have to compare it to Xenon Pharmaceuticals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Xenon Pharmaceuticals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Xenon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Xenon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Xenon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Xenon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Xenon Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 41.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 0.81, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Xenon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Xenon Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Xenon Pharmaceuticals | Xenon Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Xenon Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Xenon Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.64 and 43.88, respectively. We have considered Xenon Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Xenon Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Xenon Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0583 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0128 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7005 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0166 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 42.03 |
Predictive Modules for Xenon Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Xenon Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Xenon Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Xenon Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Xenon Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Xenon Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Xenon Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Xenon Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Xenon Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 39.65 and 43.87, respectively. We have considered Xenon Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Xenon Pharmaceuticals is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Xenon Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Xenon Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Xenon Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Xenon Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 2.12 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
41.76 | 41.76 | 0.00 |
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Xenon Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Xenon Pharmaceuticals is at this time traded for 41.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Xenon is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 52.87%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Xenon Pharmaceuticals is about 212000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.76. About 100.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 3.89. Xenon Pharmaceuticals had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xenon Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.Xenon Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Xenon Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Xenon Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Xenon Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Xenon Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CNTA | Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC | (0.55) | 7 per month | 2.50 | 0.04 | 4.97 | (4.08) | 26.54 | |
| APGE | Apogee Therapeutics Common | 1.96 | 8 per month | 2.57 | 0.09 | 4.56 | (3.96) | 15.07 | |
| AAPG | Ascentage Pharma Group | 1.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.25 | (6.36) | 16.72 | |
| RARE | Ultragenyx | (1.09) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.73 | (4.09) | 51.23 | |
| CELC | Celcuity LLC | (0.57) | 7 per month | 2.29 | 0.19 | 7.55 | (3.96) | 17.89 | |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 4.56 | (4.21) | 10.32 | |
| CGON | CG Oncology Common | (0.83) | 8 per month | 2.58 | 0.07 | 5.15 | (4.40) | 33.66 | |
| SRRK | Scholar Rock Holding | 0.43 | 8 per month | 2.40 | 0.17 | 5.92 | (4.21) | 30.20 | |
| TVTX | Travere Therapeutics | (0.30) | 7 per month | 3.37 | 0.02 | 6.09 | (5.47) | 33.22 | |
| LEGN | Legend Biotech Corp | (0.04) | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 3.83 | (6.84) | 19.65 |
Other Forecasting Options for Xenon Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in Xenon, whether a beginner or expert, Xenon Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Xenon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Xenon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Xenon Pharmaceuticals' price trends.Xenon Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Xenon Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Xenon Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Xenon Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Xenon Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Xenon Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Xenon Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Xenon Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Xenon Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Xenon Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting xenon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Variance | 4.48 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Xenon Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Xenon Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Xenon Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Xenon Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Xenon Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Xenon Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Xenon Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Xenon Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Xenon Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Xenon Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Xenon Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 77.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 626.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xenon Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Xenon Stock refer to our How to Trade Xenon Stock guide.You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Xenon Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Xenon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Xenon Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (3.89) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (1.00) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Xenon Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Xenon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Xenon Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Xenon Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Xenon Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Xenon Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Xenon Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Xenon Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Xenon Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.