Xpel Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| XPEL Stock | USD 53.72 0.16 0.30% |
Xpel Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Xpel's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Xpel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Xpel Inc from the perspective of Xpel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Xpel Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 53.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.72. Xpel after-hype prediction price | USD 53.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xpel to cross-verify your projections. Xpel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Xpel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Xpel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Xpel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Xpel Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Xpel Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 53.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.78, mean absolute percentage error of 1.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.72.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Xpel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Xpel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Xpel Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Xpel | Xpel Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Xpel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Xpel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Xpel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.55 and 55.91, respectively. We have considered Xpel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Xpel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Xpel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4244 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2547 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7786 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 46.7166 |
Predictive Modules for Xpel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Xpel Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Xpel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Xpel After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Xpel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Xpel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Xpel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Xpel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Xpel's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Xpel's historical news coverage. Xpel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.79 and 56.15, respectively. We have considered Xpel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Xpel is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Xpel Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Xpel Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Xpel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Xpel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Xpel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.49 | 2.18 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
53.72 | 53.97 | 0.47 |
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Xpel Hype Timeline
Xpel Inc is at this time traded for 53.72. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.29. Xpel is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 53.97 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.47%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.49%. The volatility of related hype on Xpel is about 362.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 54.01. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 420.4 M. Net Income was 45.49 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 193.54 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xpel to cross-verify your projections.Xpel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Xpel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Xpel's future price movements. Getting to know how Xpel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Xpel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FOXF | Fox Factory Holding | 0.46 | 8 per month | 2.64 | 0.1 | 4.58 | (4.89) | 12.56 | |
| SMP | Standard Motor Products | 1.71 | 9 per month | 1.05 | 0.12 | 3.87 | (1.91) | 7.53 | |
| AEVA | Aeva Technologies Common | 2.72 | 10 per month | 6.50 | 0.03 | 16.00 | (9.71) | 48.05 | |
| AXL | American Axle Manufacturing | (0.04) | 10 per month | 2.14 | 0.15 | 8.55 | (4.01) | 13.56 | |
| ECX | ECARX Holdings Class | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 8.25 | (7.77) | 19.00 | |
| SES | SES AI Corp | 0.09 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 8.90 | (10.57) | 27.52 | |
| HDL | SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.37 | (4.37) | 9.34 | |
| THRM | Gentherm | 1.07 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.44 | (3.10) | 17.86 | |
| AMWD | American Woodmark | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.00 | 0.09 | 5.26 | (3.89) | 19.96 | |
| LGIH | LGI Homes | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.88 | 0.12 | 8.39 | (3.37) | 17.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for Xpel
For every potential investor in Xpel, whether a beginner or expert, Xpel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Xpel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Xpel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Xpel's price trends.Xpel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Xpel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Xpel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Xpel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Xpel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Xpel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Xpel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Xpel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Xpel Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Xpel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Xpel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Xpel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting xpel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Variance | 4.74 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Xpel
The number of cover stories for Xpel depends on current market conditions and Xpel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Xpel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Xpel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Xpel Short Properties
Xpel's future price predictability will typically decrease when Xpel's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Xpel Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Xpel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Xpel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 22.1 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xpel to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Automotive Parts & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Xpel. Anticipated expansion of Xpel directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Xpel assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Investors evaluate Xpel Inc using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Xpel's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Xpel's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Xpel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Xpel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Xpel's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.