Xpeng Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| XPEV Stock | USD 19.25 0.68 3.41% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Xpeng Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 18.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.90. Xpeng Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Xpeng's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.10) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.4163 | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.01) | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.611 | Wall Street Target Price 28.1625 |
Using Xpeng hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Xpeng Inc from the perspective of Xpeng response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Xpeng using Xpeng's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Xpeng using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Xpeng's stock price.
Xpeng Short Interest
An investor who is long Xpeng may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Xpeng and may potentially protect profits, hedge Xpeng with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 20.4442 | Short Percent 0.0484 | Short Ratio 4.25 | Shares Short Prior Month 36.5 M | 50 Day MA 20.7486 |
Xpeng Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Xpeng's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Xpeng. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Xpeng can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Xpeng Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Xpeng Implied Volatility | 0.61 |
Xpeng's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Xpeng Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Xpeng's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Xpeng stock will not fluctuate a lot when Xpeng's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Xpeng Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 18.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.90. Xpeng after-hype prediction price | USD 19.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xpeng to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Xpeng contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Xpeng Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0381% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Xpeng trading at USD 19.25, that is roughly USD 0.007339 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Xpeng's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Xpeng Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.61%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Xpeng Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Xpeng's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Xpeng's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Xpeng stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Xpeng's open interest, investors have to compare it to Xpeng's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Xpeng is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Xpeng. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Xpeng Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Xpeng price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Xpeng using various technical indicators. When you analyze Xpeng charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Xpeng's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2019-03-31 | Previous Quarter 18.8 B | Current Value 17.5 B | Quarterly Volatility 8.2 B |
Xpeng Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Xpeng Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 18.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.82, mean absolute percentage error of 1.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Xpeng Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Xpeng's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Xpeng Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Xpeng | Xpeng Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Xpeng Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Xpeng's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Xpeng's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.10 and 22.84, respectively. We have considered Xpeng's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Xpeng stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Xpeng stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3683 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.818 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0371 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 49.8967 |
Predictive Modules for Xpeng
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Xpeng Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Xpeng's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Xpeng After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Xpeng at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Xpeng or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Xpeng, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Xpeng Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Xpeng's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Xpeng's historical news coverage. Xpeng's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.82 and 23.56, respectively. We have considered Xpeng's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Xpeng is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Xpeng Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Xpeng Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Xpeng is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Xpeng backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Xpeng, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 4.37 | 0.06 | 5.69 | 23 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 23 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
19.25 | 19.19 | 0.31 |
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Xpeng Hype Timeline
Xpeng Inc is at this time traded for 19.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 5.69. Xpeng is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 19.19. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.31%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Xpeng is about 15.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.94. About 13.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Xpeng was at this time reported as 4.51. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.64. Xpeng Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 23 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Xpeng to cross-verify your projections.Xpeng Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Xpeng's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Xpeng's future price movements. Getting to know how Xpeng's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Xpeng may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GELHY | Geely Automobile Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.40 | (2.76) | 6.06 | |
| LI | Li Auto | 272.58 | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 2.48 | (3.27) | 7.91 | |
| NIO | Nio Class A | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 3.87 | (5.45) | 11.98 | |
| PHM | PulteGroup | (0.49) | 19 per month | 1.45 | (0.02) | 5.00 | (2.49) | 9.97 | |
| RIVN | Rivian Automotive | (0.42) | 6 per month | 3.14 | 0.07 | 10.70 | (6.11) | 31.17 | |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | 5.67 | 10 per month | 0.99 | 0.17 | 2.71 | (2.03) | 14.68 | |
| STLA | Stellantis NV | (0.05) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.66 | (4.19) | 13.57 | |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands International | (0.30) | 8 per month | 0.98 | (0.04) | 2.13 | (1.73) | 6.22 | |
| TPR | Tapestry | 3.70 | 16 per month | 2.26 | 0.05 | 3.00 | (3.10) | 12.35 | |
| WSM | Williams Sonoma | 3.70 | 14 per month | 1.78 | 0.03 | 3.63 | (2.83) | 7.84 |
Other Forecasting Options for Xpeng
For every potential investor in Xpeng, whether a beginner or expert, Xpeng's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Xpeng Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Xpeng. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Xpeng's price trends.Xpeng Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Xpeng stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Xpeng could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Xpeng by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Xpeng Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Xpeng stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Xpeng shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Xpeng stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Xpeng Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Xpeng Risk Indicators
The analysis of Xpeng's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Xpeng's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting xpeng stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.31 | |||
| Variance | 18.61 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Xpeng
The number of cover stories for Xpeng depends on current market conditions and Xpeng's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Xpeng is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Xpeng's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Xpeng Short Properties
Xpeng's future price predictability will typically decrease when Xpeng's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Xpeng Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Xpeng's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Xpeng's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 32.7 B |
Additional Tools for Xpeng Stock Analysis
When running Xpeng's price analysis, check to measure Xpeng's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Xpeng is operating at the current time. Most of Xpeng's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Xpeng's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Xpeng's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Xpeng to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.