Yatsen Holding Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| YSG Stock | USD 4.03 0.08 1.95% |
Yatsen Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Yatsen Holding's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 17th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Yatsen Holding's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Yatsen Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Yatsen Holding from the perspective of Yatsen Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Yatsen Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 4.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.14. Yatsen Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 4.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Yatsen Holding to cross-verify your projections. Yatsen Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Yatsen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Yatsen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Yatsen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Yatsen Holding Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Yatsen Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 4.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Yatsen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Yatsen Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Yatsen Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Yatsen Holding | Yatsen Holding Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Yatsen Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Yatsen Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Yatsen Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 9.38, respectively. We have considered Yatsen Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Yatsen Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Yatsen Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0342 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1889 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0418 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.1422 |
Predictive Modules for Yatsen Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Yatsen Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Yatsen Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Yatsen Holding After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Yatsen Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Yatsen Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Yatsen Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Yatsen Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Yatsen Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Yatsen Holding's historical news coverage. Yatsen Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.20 and 9.33, respectively. We have considered Yatsen Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Yatsen Holding is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Yatsen Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Yatsen Holding Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Yatsen Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Yatsen Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Yatsen Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.48 | 5.31 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Any time |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
4.03 | 4.02 | 0.25 |
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Yatsen Holding Hype Timeline
On the 17th of February 2026 Yatsen Holding is traded for 4.03. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. Yatsen is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 4.02. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.25%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.48%. The volatility of related hype on Yatsen Holding is about 7925.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.06. About 27.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.89. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Yatsen Holding recorded a loss per share of 0.73. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:5 split on the 18th of March 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be any time. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Yatsen Holding to cross-verify your projections.Yatsen Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Yatsen Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Yatsen Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Yatsen Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Yatsen Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JMIA | Jumia Technologies AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 8.34 | (6.32) | 29.78 | |
| HZO | MarineMax | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.30 | 0.13 | 7.45 | (4.24) | 16.81 | |
| ZKH | ZKH Group Limited | (0.11) | 8 per month | 2.33 | 0.1 | 3.84 | (2.90) | 25.66 | |
| BWMX | Betterware de Mxico | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.40 | 0.17 | 4.34 | (2.22) | 16.38 | |
| BBW | Build A Bear Workshop | (0.05) | 23 per month | 4.27 | 0.04 | 4.68 | (4.88) | 25.04 | |
| SFIX | Stitch Fix | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.80 | (6.78) | 21.30 | |
| ARKO | Arko Corp | 0.83 | 20 per month | 1.70 | 0.17 | 6.39 | (3.01) | 14.80 | |
| UXIN | Uxin | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.70 | 0.1 | 10.95 | (7.97) | 28.17 | |
| OLPX | Olaplex Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.24 | 0.17 | 7.21 | (5.66) | 27.88 | |
| ETD | Ethan Allen Interiors | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.72 | 0.04 | 3.71 | (2.30) | 10.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for Yatsen Holding
For every potential investor in Yatsen, whether a beginner or expert, Yatsen Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Yatsen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Yatsen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Yatsen Holding's price trends.Yatsen Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Yatsen Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Yatsen Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Yatsen Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Yatsen Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Yatsen Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Yatsen Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Yatsen Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Yatsen Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 928.37 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.42) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 4.03 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 4.03 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.08) |
Yatsen Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Yatsen Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Yatsen Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting yatsen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.31 | |||
| Variance | 28.21 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Yatsen Holding
The number of cover stories for Yatsen Holding depends on current market conditions and Yatsen Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Yatsen Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Yatsen Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Yatsen Holding Short Properties
Yatsen Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when Yatsen Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Yatsen Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Yatsen Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Yatsen Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 101.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Yatsen Holding to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Yatsen Stock please use our How to Invest in Yatsen Holding guide.You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Can Personal Care Products industry sustain growth momentum? Does Yatsen have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Yatsen Holding. Anticipated expansion of Yatsen directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating Yatsen Holding demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Investors evaluate Yatsen Holding using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Yatsen Holding's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Yatsen Holding's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Yatsen Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Yatsen Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Conversely, Yatsen Holding's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.