Yatra Online Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| YTRA Stock | USD 1.67 0.03 1.76% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Yatra Online on the next trading day is expected to be 1.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.88. Yatra Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Yatra Online stock prices and determine the direction of Yatra Online's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Yatra Online's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Yatra Online's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.19) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.05 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.67 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.95 | Wall Street Target Price 2.9018 |
Using Yatra Online hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Yatra Online from the perspective of Yatra Online response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Yatra Online on the next trading day is expected to be 1.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.88. Yatra Online after-hype prediction price | USD 1.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Yatra Online to cross-verify your projections. Yatra Online Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Yatra price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Yatra using various technical indicators. When you analyze Yatra charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Yatra Online Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Yatra Online's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2014-03-31 | Previous Quarter 696.2 M | Current Value 758.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 1.2 B |
Yatra Online Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Yatra Online on the next trading day is expected to be 1.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Yatra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Yatra Online's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Yatra Online Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Yatra Online | Yatra Online Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Yatra Online Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Yatra Online's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Yatra Online's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.65, respectively. We have considered Yatra Online's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Yatra Online stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Yatra Online stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5402 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0472 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0285 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.8784 |
Predictive Modules for Yatra Online
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Yatra Online. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Yatra Online After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Yatra Online at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Yatra Online or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Yatra Online, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Yatra Online Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Yatra Online's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Yatra Online's historical news coverage. Yatra Online's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.09 and 5.70, respectively. We have considered Yatra Online's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Yatra Online is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Yatra Online is based on 3 months time horizon.
Yatra Online Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Yatra Online is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Yatra Online backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Yatra Online, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 4.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
1.67 | 1.71 | 0.59 |
|
Yatra Online Hype Timeline
Yatra Online is at this time traded for 1.67. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Yatra is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.71 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.59%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Yatra Online is about 9090.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.66. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 7.95 B. Net Income was 10.65 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.79 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Yatra Online to cross-verify your projections.Yatra Online Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Yatra Online's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Yatra Online's future price movements. Getting to know how Yatra Online's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Yatra Online may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| INTG | The Intergroup | 0.03 | 9 per month | 5.04 | (0.01) | 9.76 | (7.86) | 30.03 | |
| RRGB | Red Robin Gourmet | (0.33) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 4.75 | (5.15) | 11.44 | |
| LAZR | Luminar Technologies | 0.04 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 17.05 | (45.02) | 236.06 | |
| PRPL | Purple Innovation | (0.02) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.25 | (5.48) | 27.01 | |
| FLL | Full House Resorts | 0.05 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.38 | (4.87) | 16.22 | |
| AOUT | American Outdoor Brands | 0.42 | 10 per month | 2.44 | 0.07 | 4.56 | (3.65) | 16.09 | |
| QVCGA | QVC Group | (0.85) | 9 per month | 9.52 | (0) | 14.97 | (14.29) | 46.70 | |
| GRWG | GrowGeneration Corp | 0.23 | 9 per month | 3.96 | (0.01) | 5.36 | (5.82) | 52.12 | |
| THCH | TH International Limited | (0.09) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.02 | (6.15) | 16.21 | |
| UHG | United Homes Group | 0.08 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 8.55 | (7.59) | 52.35 |
Other Forecasting Options for Yatra Online
For every potential investor in Yatra, whether a beginner or expert, Yatra Online's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Yatra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Yatra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Yatra Online's price trends.Yatra Online Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Yatra Online stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Yatra Online could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Yatra Online by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Yatra Online Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Yatra Online stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Yatra Online shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Yatra Online stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Yatra Online entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7939.43 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.43) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.67 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.67 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.03) |
Yatra Online Risk Indicators
The analysis of Yatra Online's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Yatra Online's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting yatra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.0 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.96 | |||
| Variance | 15.71 | |||
| Downside Variance | 16.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 14.11 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.13) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Yatra Online
The number of cover stories for Yatra Online depends on current market conditions and Yatra Online's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Yatra Online is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Yatra Online's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Yatra Online Short Properties
Yatra Online's future price predictability will typically decrease when Yatra Online's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Yatra Online often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Yatra Online's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Yatra Online's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 110.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.9 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Yatra Online to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Yatra Stock refer to our How to Trade Yatra Stock guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Is Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Yatra Online. If investors know Yatra will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Yatra Online listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.19) | Earnings Share 0.01 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.485 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Yatra Online is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Yatra that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Yatra Online's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Yatra Online's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Yatra Online's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Yatra Online's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Yatra Online's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Yatra Online is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Yatra Online's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.