Zai Lab Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ZLAB Stock | USD 18.33 0.04 0.22% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Zai Lab on the next trading day is expected to be 18.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.26. Zai Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Zai Lab stock prices and determine the direction of Zai Lab's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Zai Lab's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the rsi of Zai Lab's share price is below 20 . This usually means that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.13) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.61) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.73) | Wall Street Target Price 47.4958 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.29) |
Using Zai Lab hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Zai Lab from the perspective of Zai Lab response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Zai Lab using Zai Lab's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Zai using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Zai Lab's stock price.
Zai Lab Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Zai Lab's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Zai. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Zai Lab stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 29.2895 | Short Percent 0.0435 | Short Ratio 5.11 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.3 M | 50 Day MA 19.0744 |
Zai Lab Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Zai Lab's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Zai. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Zai can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Zai Lab. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Zai Lab Implied Volatility | 1.55 |
Zai Lab's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Zai Lab stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Zai Lab's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Zai Lab stock will not fluctuate a lot when Zai Lab's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Zai Lab on the next trading day is expected to be 18.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.26. Zai Lab after-hype prediction price | USD 18.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Zai Lab to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Zai contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Zai Lab will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0969% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Zai Lab trading at USD 18.33, that is roughly USD 0.0178 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Zai Lab's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Zai Lab options at the current volatility level of 1.55%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Zai Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Zai Lab's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Zai Lab's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Zai Lab stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Zai Lab's open interest, investors have to compare it to Zai Lab's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Zai Lab is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Zai. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Zai Lab Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Zai price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Zai using various technical indicators. When you analyze Zai charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Zai Lab Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Zai Lab on the next trading day is expected to be 18.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Zai Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Zai Lab's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Zai Lab Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Zai Lab | Zai Lab Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Zai Lab Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Zai Lab's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Zai Lab's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.78 and 20.70, respectively. We have considered Zai Lab's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Zai Lab stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Zai Lab stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0285 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3773 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0188 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.26 |
Predictive Modules for Zai Lab
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Zai Lab. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Zai Lab After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Zai Lab at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Zai Lab or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Zai Lab, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Zai Lab Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Zai Lab's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Zai Lab's historical news coverage. Zai Lab's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.86 and 20.78, respectively. We have considered Zai Lab's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Zai Lab is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Zai Lab is based on 3 months time horizon.
Zai Lab Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Zai Lab is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Zai Lab backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Zai Lab, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.55 | 2.46 | 0.02 | 0.22 | 14 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 14 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
18.33 | 18.32 | 0.05 |
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Zai Lab Hype Timeline
Zai Lab is at this time traded for 18.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.22. Zai is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 18.32. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.55%. The volatility of related hype on Zai Lab is about 616.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.11. About 34.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Zai Lab was at this time reported as 6.87. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.9. Zai Lab had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 14 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Zai Lab to cross-verify your projections.Zai Lab Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Zai Lab's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Zai Lab's future price movements. Getting to know how Zai Lab's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Zai Lab may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LEGN | Legend Biotech Corp | 0.74 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 3.83 | (6.84) | 19.65 | |
| IRON | Disc Medicine | (0.39) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.33 | (4.35) | 16.19 | |
| AAPG | Ascentage Pharma Group | 1.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.25 | (6.36) | 16.72 | |
| SRRK | Scholar Rock Holding | (1.23) | 10 per month | 2.40 | 0.17 | 5.92 | (4.21) | 30.20 | |
| IDYA | Ideaya Biosciences | 0.03 | 10 per month | 2.08 | 0.06 | 4.86 | (3.78) | 15.68 | |
| CNTA | Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC | (0.55) | 7 per month | 2.50 | 0.04 | 4.97 | (4.08) | 26.54 | |
| XENE | Xenon Pharmaceuticals | (2.30) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.78 | (2.71) | 10.56 | |
| CDTX | Cidara Therapeutics | 0.20 | 6 per month | 1.30 | 0.13 | 5.93 | (4.54) | 105.72 | |
| TARS | Tarsus Pharmaceuticals | (1.82) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.78 | (3.41) | 10.59 | |
| APGE | Apogee Therapeutics Common | 0.31 | 12 per month | 2.57 | 0.09 | 4.56 | (3.96) | 15.07 |
Other Forecasting Options for Zai Lab
For every potential investor in Zai, whether a beginner or expert, Zai Lab's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Zai Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Zai. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Zai Lab's price trends.Zai Lab Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Zai Lab stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Zai Lab could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Zai Lab by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Zai Lab Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Zai Lab stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Zai Lab shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Zai Lab stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Zai Lab entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Zai Lab Risk Indicators
The analysis of Zai Lab's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Zai Lab's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting zai stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Variance | 6.36 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Zai Lab
The number of cover stories for Zai Lab depends on current market conditions and Zai Lab's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Zai Lab is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Zai Lab's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Zai Lab Short Properties
Zai Lab's future price predictability will typically decrease when Zai Lab's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Zai Lab often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Zai Lab's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Zai Lab's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 98.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 779.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Zai Lab to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Zai Stock refer to our How to Trade Zai Stock guide.You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Zai Lab. If investors know Zai will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Zai Lab listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.90) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.135 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Zai Lab is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Zai that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Zai Lab's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Zai Lab's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Zai Lab's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Zai Lab's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Zai Lab's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Zai Lab is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Zai Lab's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.