Origin Agritech (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.58
| 39O1 Stock | EUR 2.34 0.06 2.63% |
Origin |
Origin Agritech Target Price Odds to finish below 2.58
The tendency of Origin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 2.58 after 90 days |
| 2.34 | 90 days | 2.58 | about 69.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Origin Agritech to stay under € 2.58 after 90 days from now is about 69.0 (This Origin Agritech probability density function shows the probability of Origin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Origin Agritech price to stay between its current price of € 2.34 and € 2.58 at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.41 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Origin Agritech has a beta of 0.84. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Origin Agritech average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Origin Agritech will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Origin Agritech has an alpha of 0.1874, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Origin Agritech Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Origin Agritech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Agritech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Origin Agritech Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Origin Agritech is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Origin Agritech's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Origin Agritech, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Origin Agritech within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.84 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Origin Agritech Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Origin Agritech for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Origin Agritech can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Origin Agritech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Origin Agritech has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Origin Agritech Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Origin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Origin Agritech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Origin Agritech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 137.7 M |
Origin Agritech Technical Analysis
Origin Agritech's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Origin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Origin Agritech. In general, you should focus on analyzing Origin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Origin Agritech Predictive Forecast Models
Origin Agritech's time-series forecasting models is one of many Origin Agritech's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Origin Agritech's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Origin Agritech
Checking the ongoing alerts about Origin Agritech for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Origin Agritech help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Origin Agritech generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Origin Agritech has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Origin Stock
When determining whether Origin Agritech is a strong investment it is important to analyze Origin Agritech's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Origin Agritech's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Origin Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Origin Agritech Backtesting, Origin Agritech Valuation, Origin Agritech Correlation, Origin Agritech Hype Analysis, Origin Agritech Volatility, Origin Agritech History as well as Origin Agritech Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Origin Stock please use our How to Invest in Origin Agritech guide.You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.