Agilon Health Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.55
| AGL Stock | USD 1.89 0.11 6.18% |
Agilon |
Agilon Health Target Price Odds to finish below 12.55
The tendency of Agilon Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 12.55 after 90 days |
| 1.89 | 90 days | 12.55 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Agilon Health to stay under $ 12.55 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This agilon health probability density function shows the probability of Agilon Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of agilon health price to stay between its current price of $ 1.89 and $ 12.55 at the end of the 90-day period is more than 94.0 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.78 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Agilon Health will likely underperform. Additionally Agilon health has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Agilon Health Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Agilon Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as agilon health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Agilon Health Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Agilon Health is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Agilon Health's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold agilon health, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Agilon Health within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -1.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.78 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.80 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Agilon Health Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Agilon Health for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for agilon health can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| agilon health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| agilon health has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| agilon health may become a speculative penny stock | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.32 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (262.8 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 112.29 M. | |
| agilon health has about 497.07 M in cash with (156.2 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.32, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| agilon health has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Royal Bank of Canada Reaffirms Outperform Rating for agilon health |
Agilon Health Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Agilon Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Agilon Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agilon Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 408.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 488.3 M |
Agilon Health Technical Analysis
Agilon Health's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Agilon Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of agilon health. In general, you should focus on analyzing Agilon Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Agilon Health Predictive Forecast Models
Agilon Health's time-series forecasting models is one of many Agilon Health's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Agilon Health's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about agilon health
Checking the ongoing alerts about Agilon Health for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for agilon health help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| agilon health generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| agilon health has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| agilon health may become a speculative penny stock | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.32 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (262.8 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 112.29 M. | |
| agilon health has about 497.07 M in cash with (156.2 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.32, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| agilon health has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Royal Bank of Canada Reaffirms Outperform Rating for agilon health |
Check out Agilon Health Backtesting, Agilon Health Valuation, Agilon Health Correlation, Agilon Health Hype Analysis, Agilon Health Volatility, Agilon Health History as well as Agilon Health Performance. For more information on how to buy Agilon Stock please use our How to buy in Agilon Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agilon Health. If investors know Agilon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agilon Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 11.951 | Earnings Share (0.76) | Revenue Per Share 13.717 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.276 | Return On Assets (0.1) |
The market value of agilon health is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agilon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agilon Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agilon Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agilon Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agilon Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agilon Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agilon Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agilon Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.