Agilon Health Valuation Analysis
| AGL Stock | USD 27.75 -0.10 -0.36% |
Above Model Estimate
Today
The intrinsic value estimate for agilon health is based on a 3 months horizon. Negative profit margins (-6.6%) signal ongoing profitability risk influencing market valuation. Extending the time horizon generally improves valuation stability.
agilon health's valuation depends on its margin structure, capital intensity, and cash-flow profile — each method captures a different dimension. Market multiples show how similar companies are currently priced relative to Agilon Health.
Main Profitability Drivers
The latest figures show Agilon Health's net profit margin at -7.17% and operating margin at -7.45%. The positive spread between net and operating margins suggests Agilon Health earns meaningful income outside its core operations. Agilon Health generated $5.93 billion in revenue, producing -$160.02 million in gross profit (-2.7% gross margin) and -$391.35 million in net income. Return on equity is -3.04% and return on assets is -33.00%, providing a view of how efficiently Agilon Health's capital and asset base are deployed. Agilon Health faces challenges on the profitability front, with declining trends across multiple margin and return indicators. For a deeper look, explore Agilon Health's profitability breakdown.
Price Book 3.54 | Gross Profit | Price Sales 0.08 | Profit Margin | Enterprise Value Revenue 0.03 |
Agilon Health Cash | $255.14 million |
Cash stood at $173.71 million as of December 31, 2025.
Revenue by Product
agilon health provides product-level revenue detail for 2 reported segments. Medical Services contributes the largest disclosed amount at 1.42 billion, while Other Operating follows at 1.91 million. The reported segment mix is best read as directional context rather than a full bridge to consolidated revenue.Agilon Health operates as a medical equipment provider generating revenue through device sales, innovation, and healthcare demand. Positioned as a growth-weighted stock within Health Care Providers & Services, its earnings multiple reflects expectations for durable earnings expansion and platform-level economics. Enterprise value, leverage, and operating performance are compared below to identify where current pricing aligns with fundamentals and where it diverges.
Total Value Analysis
agilon health currently shows enterprise value of 200.49 million, market capitalization of 445.48 million, debt of 36.81 million, and cash and equivalents of 255.66 million as of latest reporting. The gap between enterprise value and market cap reflects the net effect of debt and cash — shifts in either can materially change the total-value picture.| Takeover Price | Market Cap | Debt Obligations | Cash & Equivalents |
200.49 million | 445.48 million | 36.81 million | 255.66 million |
Investor Information
About 87.0% of AGL shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of AGL was presently reported as 7.64. AGL has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.19. Agilon Health reported a loss per share of 24.5. AGL had its last dividend issued on the February 17, 2016. The firm completed a 0.040-for-1 stock split on 31st of March 2026. agilon health operates at significant scale, but margin compression and elevated leverage point to pressured financial positioning. The earnings picture reflects near-term margin compression relative to deployed assets.Asset Utilization
The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. Agilon Health has an asset utilization ratio of 466.66 percent. This suggests that the Company is making $4.67 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that agilon health is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.Macro event markers
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
agilon health trades above its custom levered DCF estimate, with implied equity value per share of -689.18 versus a market price of 27.85. Relative to the modeled value, the stock sits roughly 2,574.6% higher. Current assumptions include 15.11% WACC, 4.0% perpetual growth, and about -1.91 Billion of next-period free cash flow. Terminal value still drives about 73.6% of enterprise value. while net debt stands around -136.90 Million. When the model-to-market gap is this wide, the result should be treated as a scenario rather than a price target. Terminal value accounts for 73.6% of the total, meaning the output hinges on assumptions about conditions well beyond the explicit forecast window.Model Value / Share
-689.18
Equity value per share from the current custom levered DCF summary row.
Market Price
27.85
Current market price used by the same scenario.
Model Premium
2,574.6%
Market price sits above the model output.
WACC / LT Growth
15.11% / 4.0%
Forecast horizon: 2021 to 2030Terminal value share of EV: 73.6%
Agilon Health Market Price vs. Intrinsic Value
This chart compares observed market pricing with the model-derived equity value per share across forecast periods. It also illustrates the relative premium or discount, expressed as a percentage difference between market valuation and modeled intrinsic value.
Projected Revenue and Levered Free Cash Flow
Revenue and levered free cash flow projections are presented in billions, outlining the expected financial trajectory over the modeled horizon.
Key Model Assumptions
The inputs below reflect the core assumptions applied in the valuation model, including growth expectations, discount rates, and capital structure considerations.
| Input | Current Value |
|---|---|
| Weighted Average Cost of Capital | 15.11% |
| Long-Term Growth Rate | 4.0% |
| Cost of Equity | 14.87% |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt | 18.04% |
| Debt Weighting | 7.39% |
| Equity Weighting | 92.61% |
| Net Debt | -136.9 million |
| Enterprise Value | -11.55 billion |
| Present Terminal Value | -8.5 billion |
| Terminal Value Share of EV | 73.6% |
Forecast Detail and Valuation Progression
This table presents the underlying forecast data used in the valuation, including revenue, cash flow generation, discounting effects, and the resulting per-share value across each projected period.
| Year | Revenue | Revenue Growth | Free Cash Flow | PV of LFCF | Equity Value / Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1.52 billion | 0.00% | -161.59 million | 0 | -689.18 |
| 2022 | 2.39 billion | 56.97% | -163.47 million | 0 | -689.18 |
| 2023 | 4.32 billion | 80.74% | -187.01 million | 0 | -689.18 |
| 2024 | 6.06 billion | 40.41% | -71.03 million | 0 | -689.18 |
| 2025 | 5.93 billion | -2.11% | -119 million | 0 | -689.18 |
| 2026 | 8.54 billion | 44.00% | -426.73 million | -370.72 million | -689.18 |
| 2027 | 12.3 billion | 44.00% | -614.48 million | -463.76 million | -689.18 |
| 2028 | 17.71 billion | 44.00% | -884.85 million | -580.17 million | -689.18 |
| 2029 | 25.51 billion | 44.00% | -1.27 billion | -725.78 million | -689.18 |
| 2030 | 36.73 billion | 44.00% | -1.83 billion | -907.95 million | -689.18 |
Profitability Analysis
Based on the profitability measurements from Agilon Health's financial statements, agilon health is currently operating at a loss, with net income of -391.35 million. The net profit margin is -7.17% and operating margin is -7.45%, with return on equity at -3.04%. Profitability is deteriorating broadly, with margin and return metrics declining across multiple levels of the income statement.Net Loss | First Reported 2018-12-31 | Previous Quarter -110.21 million | Current Value -188.88 million | Quarterly Volatility 72.71 million |
Macro event markers
Agilon Health profitability is assessed through margins, return on equity, and asset efficiency. Both net and operating margins are negative (-7.17% and -7.45% respectively), indicating the business is consuming more capital than it generates at current revenue levels. The ratios below show whether current profitability is durable, improving, or under pressure. Agilon Health reports return on equity of -3.04%, reflecting negative returns on shareholder capital.
Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual
Analyst consensus on Agilon Health's EPS captures the range of professional forecasts and their trajectory over time. An operating margin of -7.45% frames the cost structure behind Agilon Health's reported EPS. Analyst EPS projections for agilon health set the bar that actual results are measured against. The direction and magnitude of any miss or beat often matters more than the absolute number. Agilon Health reported estimated earnings of -1.1654 in earnings per share on 30th of June 2026. This estimate serves as the benchmark against which the next reported result will be judged by the market.Macro event markers
Ownership Allocation
The majority of Agilon Health's outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. High institutional ownership often reflects the stock's eligibility for passive index funds, which are required to hold positions proportional to index weights regardless of their own investment view. Active managers holding Agilon Health must also disclose positions above certain thresholds through SEC filings.Revenue and Profit Overview
AGL reported last year's revenue of $5.93 billion. Reported Net Loss for the year was -$391.35 million with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of -$160.02 million.What the Data Shows
The 23.14 earnings multiple places Agilon Health at a level where the market is pricing in steady earnings continuation rather than aggressive growth or contraction. Negative profit margins signal that Agilon Health is currently spending more than it earns - typically the result of elevated cost pressures, restructuring, or operational challenges that limit how reliably the business generates earnings. Conservative leverage at 0.05 gives Agilon Health significant balance-sheet flexibility to support future investment or weather economic stress. Current pricing embeds an expectation of steady earnings performance roughly in line with historical trends. A shift in forward earnings expectations and sector dynamics would alter the balance between what the market has priced in and what ultimately materializes.
Big Picture Assessment
The financial profile frames agilon health as a business currently operating below profitability breakeven in the Health Care Providers & Services sector. With margins below zero, traditional valuation and efficiency metrics carry limited analytical weight. The investment case hinges on whether the business can establish a sustainable path to profitability. At current levels, Agilon Health's valuation reflects an earnings profile that has not yet stabilized. A re-rating would require demonstrated improvement in profitability and cost discipline.
These valuation inputs for agilon health should be revisited as new data and market conditions evolve. With margins currently negative, the critical question is whether the path to profitability is supported by revenue trends and cost discipline.
Valuation Framework, Methodology & Assumptions
Agilon Health is a small-cap equity in Health Care Providers & Services, Health Care Equipment & Services, Health Care categories. Intrinsic value assumptions are benchmarked against sector averages. For Agilon Health, P/B of 3.54 anchors the current valuation read, with enterprise value (TTM) of 200.49 million, P/E of 23.14 adding context.
Reported values for agilon health are derived from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and standardized for analysis. Sell-side coverage, where present, supplements the data shown. Valuation outputs are model-derived and depend on published assumptions and reference inputs.
The analysis above is generated by quantitative models and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an endorsement to buy or sell any security. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. See our Terms of Use for full details.
Financial data referenced in this analysis is derived from publicly available SEC filings, audited financial statements, and third-party market data providers. The intrinsic value estimate is generated by Macroaxis quantitative models that incorporate fundamental analysis, technical indicators, and risk metrics.
The methodology combines multiple analytical inputs:
- Fundamental analysis - financial statements, profitability ratios, debt structure, and cash flow metrics sourced from SEC filings and public financial reports
- Technical indicators - historical price patterns, momentum signals, and volatility measures
- Risk assessment - probability of bankruptcy models, market risk metrics, and downside scenario analysis
- Peer comparison - relative valuation against industry peers using standardized multiples
Model outputs are refreshed periodically as new financial data becomes available. Past model performance is not indicative of future results. The intrinsic value estimate reflects a point-in-time calculation and should be considered alongside other research and professional advice.
Data sourced from SEC filings (EDGAR), public financial statements, and market data providers.
Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Ellen Johnson, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Growth Indicators
A growth framework around agilon health should test whether the business is actually regaining operating strength instead of assuming the market is pricing in a classic high-growth trajectory. In this context, the key question is whether current momentum can rebuild durable earnings power rather than simply produce a short-lived rebound.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.56 million | |
| Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y | 11.95% | |
| Forward Price Earnings | 178.5714 |
Agilon Health Current Valuation Indicators
The intrinsic value of agilon health is estimated using multiple approaches, including discounted cash flow analysis, relative valuation multiples, and balance sheet-based methods, each reflecting different assumptions about earnings durability, capital structure, and future cash generation. Quantitative valuation narrows the range of reasonable outcomes by cross-referencing multiple model-based signals. Reported values are derived from company filings, audited financial statements, and market data, and are standardized within Macroaxis quantitative models for consistency. Model outputs reflect a point-in-time estimate based on available data and assumptions and should be interpreted alongside changes in operating performance, market conditions, and forward expectations.