Agilon Health Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AGL Stock | USD 0.63 0.06 8.70% |
Agilon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Agilon Health's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Agilon Health's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agilon Health fundamentals over time.
As of now the relative strength index (rsi) of Agilon Health's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 11.951 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.19) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.74) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.41) | Wall Street Target Price 0.9858 |
Using Agilon Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of agilon health from the perspective of Agilon Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Agilon Health using Agilon Health's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Agilon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Agilon Health's stock price.
Agilon Health Short Interest
An investor who is long Agilon Health may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Agilon Health and may potentially protect profits, hedge Agilon Health with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 1.5537 | Short Percent 0.0805 | Short Ratio 3.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 20.6 M | 50 Day MA 0.767 |
Agilon Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of agilon health on the next trading day is expected to be 0.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.40.agilon health Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Agilon Health's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Agilon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Agilon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around agilon health. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Agilon Health's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Agilon Health.
Agilon Health Implied Volatility | 1.48 |
Agilon Health's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of agilon health stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Agilon Health's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Agilon Health stock will not fluctuate a lot when Agilon Health's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of agilon health on the next trading day is expected to be 0.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.40. Agilon Health after-hype prediction price | USD 0.69 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agilon Health to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Agilon Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Agilon Health's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Agilon Health's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Agilon Health stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Agilon Health's open interest, investors have to compare it to Agilon Health's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Agilon Health is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Agilon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Agilon Health Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Agilon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Agilon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Agilon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Agilon Health Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of agilon health on the next trading day is expected to be 0.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agilon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agilon Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Agilon Health Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Agilon Health | Agilon Health Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Agilon Health Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Agilon Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agilon Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 6.93, respectively. We have considered Agilon Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agilon Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agilon Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.5698 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 3.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0407 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0546 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.4 |
Predictive Modules for Agilon Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as agilon health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Agilon Health After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Agilon Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Agilon Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Agilon Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Agilon Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Agilon Health's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Agilon Health's historical news coverage. Agilon Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 6.92, respectively. We have considered Agilon Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Agilon Health is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of agilon health is based on 3 months time horizon.
Agilon Health Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Agilon Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Agilon Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Agilon Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 6.27 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.63 | 0.69 | 0.00 |
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Agilon Health Hype Timeline
On the 5th of February agilon health is traded for 0.63. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. Agilon is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Agilon Health is about 2132.65%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.66. About 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.03. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. agilon health has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.19. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.78. The firm last dividend was issued on the February 17, 2016. Agilon Health had 2:1 split on the December 4, 1995. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agilon Health to cross-verify your projections.Agilon Health Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Agilon Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Agilon Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Agilon Health's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Agilon Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ENSG | The Ensign Group | 1.49 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.51 | (1.62) | 6.93 | |
| ALGN | Align Technology | (1.78) | 10 per month | 1.37 | 0.09 | 3.51 | (2.54) | 11.36 | |
| UHS | Universal Health Services | 4.20 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.49 | (2.87) | 8.92 | |
| ATR | AptarGroup | (0.58) | 9 per month | 1.64 | 0.01 | 2.48 | (1.98) | 6.72 | |
| BIO | Bio Rad Laboratories | (6.93) | 9 per month | 1.39 | (0.02) | 4.31 | (2.83) | 8.43 | |
| CHE | Chemed Corp | 1.11 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.25 | (2.24) | 5.87 | |
| MOH | Molina Healthcare | 3.70 | 10 per month | 2.64 | 0.09 | 3.97 | (3.94) | 13.66 | |
| RVMD | Revolution Medicines | 1.40 | 10 per month | 2.96 | 0.17 | 4.56 | (2.52) | 45.50 | |
| BMRN | Biomarin Pharmaceutical | 0.44 | 11 per month | 1.47 | 0.05 | 3.20 | (2.32) | 22.06 | |
| HSIC | Henry Schein | (0.11) | 9 per month | 1.32 | 0.10 | 2.43 | (2.60) | 13.60 |
Other Forecasting Options for Agilon Health
For every potential investor in Agilon, whether a beginner or expert, Agilon Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agilon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agilon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agilon Health's price trends.Agilon Health Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agilon Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agilon Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agilon Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Agilon Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agilon Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agilon Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agilon Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify agilon health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 841757.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.75) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.91 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.66 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.65 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.06) |
Agilon Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of Agilon Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agilon Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agilon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.2 | |||
| Variance | 38.43 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Agilon Health
The number of cover stories for Agilon Health depends on current market conditions and Agilon Health's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Agilon Health is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Agilon Health's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Agilon Health Short Properties
Agilon Health's future price predictability will typically decrease when Agilon Health's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of agilon health often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Agilon Health's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Agilon Health's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 411 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 405.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agilon Health to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Agilon Stock please use our How to buy in Agilon Stock guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Is Health Care Providers & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agilon Health. If investors know Agilon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Agilon Health assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 11.951 | Earnings Share (0.78) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate agilon health using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Agilon Health's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Agilon Health's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Agilon Health's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Agilon Health represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Agilon Health's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.