Ashford Hospitality Trust Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 12.0
| AHT Stock | USD 8.94 0.25 2.72% |
Ashford |
Ashford Hospitality Target Price Odds to finish below 12.0
The tendency of Ashford Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 12.00 after 90 days |
| 8.94 | 90 days | 12.00 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ashford Hospitality to stay under $ 12.00 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Ashford Hospitality Trust probability density function shows the probability of Ashford Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ashford Hospitality Trust price to stay between its current price of $ 8.94 and $ 12.00 at the end of the 90-day period is about 23.22 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Ashford Hospitality Trust has a beta of -0.23. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Ashford Hospitality are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Ashford Hospitality Trust is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Ashford Hospitality Trust has an alpha of 0.0409, implying that it can generate a 0.0409 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Ashford Hospitality Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ashford Hospitality
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ashford Hospitality Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ashford Hospitality Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ashford Hospitality is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ashford Hospitality's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ashford Hospitality Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ashford Hospitality within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.48 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Ashford Hospitality Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ashford Hospitality for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ashford Hospitality Trust can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ashford Hospitality had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Ashford Hospitality has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.37 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (178.49 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 296.93 M. | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ASHFORD HOSPITALITY TRUST ANNOUNCES CONVERSION OF LE PAVILLON NEW ORLEANS TO MARRIOTTS TRIBUTE ... |
Ashford Hospitality Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ashford Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ashford Hospitality's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ashford Hospitality's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 34.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 165.2 M |
Ashford Hospitality Technical Analysis
Ashford Hospitality's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ashford Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ashford Hospitality Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ashford Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ashford Hospitality Predictive Forecast Models
Ashford Hospitality's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ashford Hospitality's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ashford Hospitality's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ashford Hospitality Trust
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ashford Hospitality for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ashford Hospitality Trust help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ashford Hospitality had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Ashford Hospitality has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.37 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (178.49 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 296.93 M. | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: ASHFORD HOSPITALITY TRUST ANNOUNCES CONVERSION OF LE PAVILLON NEW ORLEANS TO MARRIOTTS TRIBUTE ... |
Additional Tools for Ashford Stock Analysis
When running Ashford Hospitality's price analysis, check to measure Ashford Hospitality's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ashford Hospitality is operating at the current time. Most of Ashford Hospitality's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ashford Hospitality's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ashford Hospitality's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ashford Hospitality to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.