Ashford Hospitality Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| AHT Stock | USD 4.21 0.11 2.55% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ashford Hospitality Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 4.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.39. Ashford Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Ashford Hospitality's share price is approaching 48. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ashford Hospitality, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ashford Hospitality hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ashford Hospitality Trust from the perspective of Ashford Hospitality response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ashford Hospitality Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 4.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.39. Ashford Hospitality after-hype prediction price | USD 4.21 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ashford Hospitality to cross-verify your projections. Ashford Hospitality Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ashford price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ashford using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ashford charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ashford Hospitality Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Ashford Hospitality Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 4.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ashford Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ashford Hospitality's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ashford Hospitality Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ashford Hospitality | Ashford Hospitality Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ashford Hospitality Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ashford Hospitality's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ashford Hospitality's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 11.93, respectively. We have considered Ashford Hospitality's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ashford Hospitality stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ashford Hospitality stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9488 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0179 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2064 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0517 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.385 |
Predictive Modules for Ashford Hospitality
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ashford Hospitality Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ashford Hospitality After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ashford Hospitality at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ashford Hospitality or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ashford Hospitality, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ashford Hospitality Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ashford Hospitality's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ashford Hospitality's historical news coverage. Ashford Hospitality's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.21 and 11.87, respectively. We have considered Ashford Hospitality's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ashford Hospitality is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ashford Hospitality Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ashford Hospitality Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ashford Hospitality is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ashford Hospitality backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ashford Hospitality, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 7.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.21 | 4.21 | 0.00 |
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Ashford Hospitality Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of January Ashford Hospitality Trust is traded for 4.21. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Ashford is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ashford Hospitality is about 77200.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.21. About 20.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.32. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ashford Hospitality Trust recorded a loss per share of 51.86. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of December 2019. The firm had 1:10 split on the 28th of October 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ashford Hospitality to cross-verify your projections.Ashford Hospitality Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ashford Hospitality's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ashford Hospitality's future price movements. Getting to know how Ashford Hospitality's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ashford Hospitality may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SOHO | Sotherly Hotels | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.93 | (0.47) | 142.94 | |
| NYC | New York City | 0.04 | 4 per month | 3.65 | 0 | 5.49 | (6.19) | 15.38 | |
| OMH | Ohmyhome Limited Ordinary | 0.01 | 2 per month | 5.11 | 0.13 | 10.90 | (7.87) | 35.41 | |
| WETH | Wetouch Technology Common | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.38 | 0.03 | 16.12 | (9.25) | 55.44 | |
| AIRE | reAlpha Tech Corp | 0.01 | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 10.42 | (11.76) | 27.21 | |
| IHT | InnSuites Hospitality Trust | 0.01 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.64 | (4.86) | 20.88 | |
| LGPS | LogProstyle | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.31 | (5.56) | 22.49 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ashford Hospitality
For every potential investor in Ashford, whether a beginner or expert, Ashford Hospitality's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ashford Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ashford. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ashford Hospitality's price trends.Ashford Hospitality Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ashford Hospitality stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ashford Hospitality could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ashford Hospitality by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ashford Hospitality Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ashford Hospitality stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ashford Hospitality shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ashford Hospitality stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ashford Hospitality Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ashford Hospitality Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ashford Hospitality's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ashford Hospitality's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ashford stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.66 | |||
| Variance | 58.63 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ashford Hospitality
The number of cover stories for Ashford Hospitality depends on current market conditions and Ashford Hospitality's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ashford Hospitality is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ashford Hospitality's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ashford Hospitality Short Properties
Ashford Hospitality's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ashford Hospitality's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ashford Hospitality Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ashford Hospitality's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ashford Hospitality's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 112.9 M |
Additional Tools for Ashford Stock Analysis
When running Ashford Hospitality's price analysis, check to measure Ashford Hospitality's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ashford Hospitality is operating at the current time. Most of Ashford Hospitality's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ashford Hospitality's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ashford Hospitality's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ashford Hospitality to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.