Aviat Networks Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 15.11
| AVNW Stock | USD 16.35 0.93 6.03% |
Aviat |
Aviat Networks Target Price Odds to finish below 15.11
The tendency of Aviat Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 15.11 or more in 90 days |
| 16.35 | 90 days | 15.11 | about 6.41 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aviat Networks to drop to $ 15.11 or more in 90 days from now is about 6.41 (This Aviat Networks probability density function shows the probability of Aviat Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aviat Networks price to stay between $ 15.11 and its current price of $16.35 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.85 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Aviat Networks has a beta of -2.44. This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Aviat Networks are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Aviat Networks is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Aviat Networks has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Aviat Networks Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aviat Networks
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aviat Networks. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aviat Networks Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aviat Networks is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aviat Networks' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aviat Networks, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aviat Networks within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.38 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -2.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.14 |
Aviat Networks Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aviat Networks for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aviat Networks can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aviat Networks generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aviat Networks has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Aviat Networks, Inc. CEO Buys 42,390.00 in Stock |
Aviat Networks Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aviat Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aviat Networks' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aviat Networks' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 64.6 M |
Aviat Networks Technical Analysis
Aviat Networks' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aviat Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aviat Networks. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aviat Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aviat Networks Predictive Forecast Models
Aviat Networks' time-series forecasting models is one of many Aviat Networks' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aviat Networks' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aviat Networks
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aviat Networks for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aviat Networks help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aviat Networks generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aviat Networks has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Aviat Networks, Inc. CEO Buys 42,390.00 in Stock |
Additional Tools for Aviat Stock Analysis
When running Aviat Networks' price analysis, check to measure Aviat Networks' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aviat Networks is operating at the current time. Most of Aviat Networks' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aviat Networks' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aviat Networks' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aviat Networks to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.