Azul Sa Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 25.49
| AZUL Stock | USD 2.35 0.26 9.96% |
Azul |
Azul SA Target Price Odds to finish over 25.49
The tendency of Azul Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 25.49 or more in 90 days |
| 2.35 | 90 days | 25.49 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Azul SA to move over $ 25.49 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Azul SA probability density function shows the probability of Azul Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Azul SA price to stay between its current price of $ 2.35 and $ 25.49 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.45 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.44 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Azul SA will likely underperform. Additionally Azul SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Azul SA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Azul SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Azul SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Azul SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Azul SA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Azul SA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Azul SA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Azul SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Azul SA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.68 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.44 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.39 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Azul SA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Azul SA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Azul SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Azul SA had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Azul SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Azul SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Azul SA currently holds 26.34 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 122.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Azul SA has a current ratio of 0.41, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Azul SA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 18.55 B. Net Loss for the year was (2.38 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.68 B. | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Azul Trading Down 4.8 percent Whats Next |
Azul SA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Azul Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Azul SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Azul SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 347.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.9 B |
Azul SA Technical Analysis
Azul SA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Azul Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Azul SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Azul Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Azul SA Predictive Forecast Models
Azul SA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Azul SA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Azul SA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Azul SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Azul SA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Azul SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Azul SA had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Azul SA has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Azul SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Azul SA currently holds 26.34 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 122.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Azul SA has a current ratio of 0.41, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Azul SA's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 18.55 B. Net Loss for the year was (2.38 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.68 B. | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Azul Trading Down 4.8 percent Whats Next |
Check out Azul SA Backtesting, Azul SA Valuation, Azul SA Correlation, Azul SA Hype Analysis, Azul SA Volatility, Azul SA History as well as Azul SA Performance. For more information on how to buy Azul Stock please use our How to buy in Azul Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Passenger Airlines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Azul SA. If investors know Azul will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Azul SA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.56) | Earnings Share (8.76) | Revenue Per Share 161.325 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) | Return On Assets 0.0685 |
The market value of Azul SA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Azul that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Azul SA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Azul SA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Azul SA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Azul SA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Azul SA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Azul SA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Azul SA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.